Last rating predictions for Bengals vs. Payments in playoff showdown
The Cincinnati Bengals as soon as once more sit one recreation faraway from the AFC title recreation.
A yr in the past, it was overcoming a visit to Tennessee to play Derrick Henry and the Titans. This yr it’s a visit to Buffalo to play Josh Allen and the Payments.
Onlookers know the most important overarching storyline — it is a rematch of the no-contest in Week 17, what was imagined to be one of many largest video games of the yr earlier than Damar Hamlin’s medical emergency.
So when looking forward to this one, not solely isn’t there that prior matchup to contemplate, however each groups seemed so-so within the wild card spherical in opposition to division rivals.
In that spherical, the Bengals wanted a record-breaking defensive play from Sam Hubbard to flee the Ravens beginning a backup quarterback. In the meantime, the Payments hardly slipped previous a Dolphins workforce beginning a third-string passer. The groups hosted each video games.
Whereas that’s an enormous speaking level, it’s grain-of-salt materials too — division video games are powerful, particularly a 3rd time. One, if not each groups, ought to look fairly a bit higher on Sunday. In spite of everything, the Bengals have received 9 video games in a row, the Payments eight.
The opposite main storyline is the battered state of the offensive line in entrance of Joe Burrow, which is able to begin Jackson Carman at left deal with (for Jonah Williams), Max Scharping at proper guard (Alex Cappa) and Hakeem Adeniji at proper deal with (La’el Collins). That’s three of 5 starters lacking after the unit had probably the most snaps of any beginning 5 performed collectively for many of the season.
And but it’s virtually exhausting to foretell how that can truly affect issues. The Cincinnati offense will shift to compensate, but it’s not all that totally different from what they did final yr en path to the Tremendous Bowl. Burrow already will get the ball out quicker than most quarterbacks within the league anyway and the Payments will likely be with out Von Miller, the man tied for a team-high with eight sacks in simply 12 video games. Buffalo has needed to blitz extra to counter, which if it occurs Sunday, is one thing Burrow often exploits.
An underrated drawback for the Bengals? Prime nook Chidobe Awuzie is out for the season and now Tre Flowers is uncertain going into this one. He’s the workforce’s particular tight-end stopper, which as a substitute means first-round rookie Dax Hill (who acquired flagged 3 times final week) will possible get the project on Payments tight finish Dawson Knox — a man who has scored a landing in 5 straight video games.
Whereas the main focus is rightfully on quarterbacks Burrow (4,475 yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs, 68.3%, 5 speeding TD) and Allen (4,283 yards, 35 TDs, 14 INTs, 63.3%, 7 speeding TD), the sport would possibly simply be determined within the defensive trenches.
Buffalo nonetheless has a sturdy quantity of expertise that may get after Burrow like Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver. And the Bengals have Hubbard, Jospeh Ossai approaching sturdy currently and naturally, Trey Hendrickson, damaged wrist and all.
If the Cincinnati line can rattle Allen and restrict his huge speeding good points, the Bengals will likely be in an amazing spot to win. If Buffalo can get to Burrow quick with stunts and blitzes, the Payments will likely be in an amazing spot to win.
One can see why the sport is so brutally powerful to foretell and seems like a kind of this could/could possibly be the convention title recreation affairs.
We’d be remiss to not point out a couple of issues that strongly favor the Bengals, although. One is defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who has constructed his protection to comprise Lamar Jackson twice a yr and now has rattled Patrick Mahomes to a 3-0 standing in opposition to the Chiefs already. And one may name final week’s struggles an anomaly as they tried to arrange for Baltimore’s uncommon triple-option look. They get to arrange as regular for the Payments.
Meaning the Bengals are higher ready than most groups to take care of Allen, who — and this is essential — is a gunslinger and risk-taker with the ball in his fingers. He threw 14 picks and fumbled eight instances in 16 video games, then threw two extra and fumbled as soon as final week. Turnovers are removed from a assure and Allen is an MVP favourite possible yearly any more for good purpose, however relating to defending the ball and profitable the turnover differential battle (the most important decider of video games), Burrow is often way more dependable than Allen.
One other is the state of the Payments line in entrance of Allen, which has gotten a free go because of the highlight on the unit in entrance of Burrow. Allen took seven sacks final week in opposition to a so-so Dolphins workforce whereas committing these turnovers, so it could possibly be an enormous day for the protection once more.
As is commonly the case, the Bengals should not beat themselves with a view to advance. The margin for error in opposition to a workforce just like the Payments is extremely slim and they should truly catch these passes which have been dropped the previous couple of weeks and ensure to reel in these only a few interceptable passes tossed their approach. Do this, and the percentages of profitable skyrocket.
The ultimate prediction? Burrow takes care of the ball higher than Allen and advantages from quick fields because the Bengals protection flusters the Buffalo offense. If nothing else, they really feel slighted and likewise perceive two of their beginning linemen may return as quickly because the AFC title recreation. Changes and turnover differential in the end win a showcase of the NFL’s elite passers.
Prediction: Bengals 30, Payments 27
Record
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