The best way to play every complete for championship Sunday

What goes up should come down. After offenses thrived in the course of the high-scoring, entertaining video games of wild-card weekend, the defenses made their presences felt within the divisional spherical. The eight groups averaged solely 20 factors per sport, greater than a full landing under final weekend’s 27.5. Those that felt the preliminary surge in scoring would create some edges for the divisional spherical totals have been rewarded in a giant approach, as unders completed 4-0 final weekend.

The place does it depart us heading into the convention championship video games? Most probably someplace within the center. The totals for every sport are barely above the common closing complete of the common season (43.8) and the league’s scoring common per sport (44). The Eagles and 49ers‘ prime defenses are anchoring the entire that’s presently 44.5 at BetMGM. The Chiefs and Bengals, who’ve arguably the highest two QBs within the league, at the moment are sitting at 47 factors.

Take the over with Burrow-Mahomes and seize the below with the Eagles-49ers? It would not shock me if it have been that easy as a result of completely nothing surprises me after seeing 20 weeks of an NFL soccer season. Nonetheless, there are key variables to contemplate. Patrick Mahomes was severely hobbled the final time he was on a soccer discipline, Jalen Hurts regarded 100% wholesome, and Brock Purdy did not like Dallas’ move rush. Ought to we purchase the dip and financial institution on scoring bouncing again? Let’s dive in and talk about the most effective methods to play every complete.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the New York Giants during an NFL divisional round playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have been fairly spectacular within the divisional spherical. (AP Picture/Wealthy Schultz)

Right here is the recency bias sport for me. As soon as everyone endured the three-hour rock battle between the Cowboys and 49ers, they left satisfied this weekend’s sport would play out the identical approach. I bought information for them: Jalen Hurts just isn’t Dak Prescott. However this is not simply in regards to the Eagles. We’re getting two top-five scoring offenses with a complete reflecting an average-scoring sport. Earlier than Hurts’ damage, Philadelphia’s offense was 2nd within the NFL in EPA per play behind solely Kansas Metropolis. If you happen to suppose that is spectacular, the 49ers have been No.1 over the last 5 weeks with Purdy because the beginning quarterback.

These are two very explosive offenses in opposition to sturdy defenses on paper, however there are questions on each items. No disrespect to both protection, however the NFL is constructed for offenses to succeed. If its power on power, the offense has the benefits. Additionally, in response to Soccer Outsiders DVOA metric, San Francisco’s protection ranks first, whereas Philadelphia slides in at a decent sixth. Nonetheless, they’ve completed it in opposition to the twenty eighth and thirty first best schedules, respectively. The Eagles’ protection gave up 40 to Dallas in its final large take a look at, and the 49ers allowed 34 to the Raiders the final time they performed on the street. Each defenses are very sturdy, however I am betting on each offenses should you’re asking who controls the sport. Take the over 45.5.

The full bought instantly pushed all the way down to 47 after opening at 48.5, which is sensible contemplating some uncertainty round Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain. Nonetheless, the Chiefs’ QB took to Twitter final night time to reassure followers he can be a go for Sunday.

We discovered a couple of issues in opposition to Jacksonville. Will probably be tough to maintain Mahomes off the sector, and him taking part in would not assure he’ll carry out at an MVP degree. Cincinnati’s defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, has precipitated Mahomes suits prior to now, main to 3 straight wins over Kansas Metropolis. Nonetheless, Cincy’s good sufficient to know they don’t seem to be stopping the Kansas Metropolis offense, and the system is to sluggish the Chiefs down sufficient so Burrow can outscore them.

Even when Anarumo’s plans labored effectively over his final three wins in opposition to Kansas Metropolis, the Chiefs scored no less than 24 factors every sport. Additionally they averaged 19.6 within the first half. That is the place I see the worth. The primary-half complete is presently 23.5 at BetMGM. The Bengals’ offense has come out firing on all cylinders over the past five games, constructing large leads and scoring 18 factors per sport in first halves.

I might quite wager on Andy Reid popping out sizzling after scheming up some counters for Anamuro’s protection than worrying about who wins the in-game changes. Plus, you would need to suppose Mahomes’ ankle will really feel its finest early within the sport, so we’re limiting publicity to him aggravating it late. I’m seeing a quick begin for each groups, making the most effective method attempting to money in early with the primary half over 23.5.

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