Jets Week 15: Fly with them
You are invited to join the fantasy playoffs fantasy managers! While many of you are preparing for the first roundInjuries are likely to have an impact on your roster. You might be looking for new players to supplement your team. This article will focus on multiple fantasy players who have been active in recent weeks and their usage going into Week 15.
Below are two metrics that will be used throughout the article.
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Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): A usage metric that calculates the average fantasy value of a player’s total opportunities based on historical play-by-play data.
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Fantasy Points are More Than Expected FPOE (Foundation Points – Expected points): A efficiency metric that can be subject to regression. Players who rely on FPOE in order to produce are more volatile on a weekly base.
These metrics can be viewed in greater detail here check out my series primer Starting Week 1
Let’s dive in!
While Garrett Wilson has rightfully received plenty of attention as the Jets WR1, Elijah Moore’s usage has slowly improved in recent weeks as he set season-highs in target share (22.3 percent) and Expected Fantasy Points (11.4) in Week 14. Part of the volume increase was due to Corey Davis’ head injury, forcing him to leave last week’s matchup early. We’ve seen several players miss at least one game due to the NFL updating their concussion protocols.
It would be no surprise that he did not attend their matchup and the Jets were left with Wilson or Moore as their featured receivers.
It was only 2.7 half-PPR point. Moore also had an Expected Fantasy Value of 10.4 in Week 13, on seven opportunities. This was WR34 despite having Davis in the lineup. Moore has been trending in the right direction for the past two weeks. Contrary to this, Detroit Lions Moore has been able to allow the second-most fantasy points per games to wide receivers, since Week 8. This is a good FLEX option to fantasy managers.
Let me begin by saying, Nico Collins He currently has a foot injury that kept him from playing in Week 14. At a roster percent of just 24 percent, there are multiple good reasons to get him off waivers, even though he will not be able to play this Sunday.
First of all, Collins has a favorable schedule for the fantasy playoffs. Collins will be playing three defenses, two of which rank in the bottom twelve in fantasy wide receiver points allowed over seven weeks. The Titans and Jaguars have the best matchups against wide receivers.
Second, Collins has been the WR16 since Week 10. He is 12.4 Expected fantasy points per game. Collins commands a 25% target share and 34% share of air yards in four games. Collins, should he fully recover from his injury, is an attractive FLEX option.
What should you do? D’Onta Foreman Chuba Hubbard Week 15
Why not both?
Hubbard, Foreman, and Hubbard were heavily involved in the Panthers offense the last three weeks. Hubbard received 80 opportunities in just two games. Both running backs are now among the top 20 in Expected Fantasy points per game since Week 12. Keep in mind, however, that trades have been discontinued Christian McCaffreyAt 61%, the Panthers are second in neutral situations with their highest rushing rate. Hubbard as well As Foreman should have plenty of fantasy-relevant opportunities in the next weeks.
Hubbard remains available in 60% of leagues, surprising. Their Week 15 matchup against The Steelers Although it is not the most appealing, I expect this game will be low-scoring. Kenny Pickett Potentially unavailable, the Panthers can rely on their running to move the chains.
Despite Dobbins’ return as the RB9 in half-PPR leagues in Week 14, I would imagine there are still a few fantasy managers who are slightly hesitant to rely on him after one productive game. Dobbins actually teased us in Week 4 with an RB10 performance, only to follow it up with 4.4 fantasy point against the. Bengals. He could still be a viable FLEX option as Week 15 approaches and the Ravens face the Cleveland Browns A pivotal matchup in divisional play.
Dobbins was heavily used in their first game back. He received a 25.4% chance share and ranked as the RB26 with 8. Expected Fantasy points. The Browns are the 10th best matchup for runningbacks. They have allowed the most yards per carry since Week 8 and offer some volatility. There is always risk when you rely on a player who has been dealing with injuries for most of the season. Dobbins will get about 15 touches this week in a matchup that is very favorable if you need a starting running back.
Greg Dulcich quietly put together an impressive season. It really shows his ability to be a valuable receiver at the tight end position. He ranks as the #1 receiver in eight games. TE8 in Route Participation (81.3 percent), TE4 In Routes Run per game (30), TE14 for Expected Fantasy Points 7.3 His usage has increased even more over the past two weeks. Dulcich’s usage has increased by averaging over this time span:
His usage over the past weeks has placed him among the most productive tight end in the league. Dulcich’s matchup against Arizona provides him with an excellent baseline. Arizona allows the tightest ends the most Fantasy Points (13.1) and yards (57.3) this season.
There is uncertainty about the position of quarterback because Russell Wilson’s Concussion. Keep in mind that Dulcich set an all-time high in Expected Fantasy Points (11.1) back in Week 7. Brett Rypien under center. Therefore, he should be a viable streaming option in Week 14.
When discussing Elijah Moore’s favorable matchup, the same applies to Mike White Since Week 8, the Detroit Lions have allowed quarterbacks the most fantasy points per match. The Lions are also giving up 335.4 yards of passing per game and have the 13th lowest pressure rate in the last seven weeks.
White is still a standout from a usage perspective. Since Week 12, the Jets have moved to a more pass-heavy offense. They now average the 11th highest neutral situation passing rate (57.1%). White’s increased production as an offensive rusher has resulted in White averaging 19.4 Expected Fantasy points as a starting quarterback. He should be confidently considered as a high-upside QB2 for fantasy teams, thanks to his favorable matchups in Detroit and Jacksonville over the next two week.