The time to behave is now within the Tremendous Bowl MVP market
We’re solely 17 days away from Tremendous Bowl LVII. As the thrill builds and the sector narrows, the belief that we’re quickly heading towards the season’s conclusion units in. Most futures positions have been determined, except you’re lucky sufficient to have a ticket on one of many remaining 4 groups. Additionally, the plethora of futures markets we’ve fired into throughout the season has dwindled to a couple. Nevertheless, one of the fascinating ones left remains to be sitting in entrance of us: Tremendous Bowl MVP. It is also one which we must be taking a look at now, somewhat than ready till half the board will get eradicated on Sunday.
After we hear “Tremendous Bowl MVP,” we instantly consider the successful crew’s quarterback. It is precisely why the highest 4 gamers on the percentages board are Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy. Nevertheless, specializing in these 4 gamers would not make sense in order for you worth. During the last decade, there’s been a 60/40 cut up between quarterbacks and non-quarterbacks successful the distinction. So for those who view it via the lens of quarterbacks being a -150 favourite (60% implied likelihood), you definitely would not dismiss the underdog. Let’s check out the highest choices, exterior of the quarterbacks, for every remaining crew to see if we are able to discover sufficient worth to take one final swing on the futures market.
McCaffrey holds the shortest odds of the group, regardless of the 49ers having the longest odds of the remaining discipline at +350. It is arduous to again him at this value as a result of he would not have a shot except the least possible crew wins the Tremendous Bowl. McCaffrey has made all of the distinction within the 49ers’ offense, but it surely’s additionally an enormous query mark whether or not it could present up on the stat sheet. Elijah Mitchell led the crew in carries towards Dallas, whereas McCaffrey was solely used on 10 of 32 speeding makes an attempt. There are too many mouths to feed within the 49ers’ backfield for me to wager on McCaffrey at this value.
Travis Kelce, +2500
When you consider Patrick Mahomes can be efficient sufficient to get to the Tremendous Bowl, chances are you’ll need to have a look at Kelce at this value. This is not a Chiefs crew of the previous, the place the offense was affected by explosive playmakers. It is a two-man recreation between Mahomes and Kelce. Which means if Mahomes goes off on Tremendous Bowl Sunday, Kelce can have the manufacturing and the charisma to overshadow his quarterback, who already has a Tremendous Bowl MVP beneath his belt. Kelce’s 12 receiving touchdowns within the common season have been second to solely Davante Adams, and the Chiefs’ tight finish added two extra towards Jacksonville. Kelce’s price a wager at this value.
Ja’Marr Chase, +2500
Chase has had 4 video games with over 100 receiving yards and has the expertise to place up a stat line that jumps off the web page. His odds change into rather more interesting if San Francisco beats Philadelphia, and he faces a secondary that Davante Adams cooked for 153 yards and a pair of TDs. These numbers can be arduous to disclaim if Chase duplicates them, however I can not think about a world the place Cincinnati wins the Tremendous Bowl with out Joe Burrow being named MVP. At 25 to 1, Kelce’s chances are high significantly better.
A.J. Brown, +3500
Would you like single-game performances that may swing voters? A.J. Brown is your man. He has three video games over 150 yards, together with a 181-yard day towards the Bears, when he averaged over 20 yards per catch. Philadelphia’s dynamic wideout could possibly be an actual risk to take residence the award if the Eagles win the Tremendous Bowl. Brown would profit extra from going through the Chiefs, who have been depressing at defending the opponent’s prime wideout. Kansas Metropolis ranks thirty first, forward of solely the Bears, in Soccer Outsider’s DVOA metric towards No.1 WRs.
Who’s the very best worth?
Is A.J. Brown at +3500 higher worth than Travis Kelce at +2500? It is determined by which crew you are feeling assured will win the Tremendous Bowl. You might be solely gaining 1.07% of implied likelihood from Brown to Kelce’s odds (3.85% to 2.78%), so your opinion on the crew’s probabilities holds extra weight. I’m rather more assured in Philadelphia advancing than Kansas Metropolis, which helps form my resolution. You won’t really feel the identical approach or choose to not have extra publicity to a sure crew. Both approach, there are other ways to method our last swing on the futures market. One factor is for positive, the percentages will not look the identical on Monday.