Western Tanks Seem to Be Heading to Ukraine, Breaking Another Taboo

Western officials are increasingly concerned that Ukraine may have a very short window of time to prepare for a Russian springtime offensive. They are quickly moving to provide Ukraine with sophisticated weapons they previously refused to send out in fear of provoke Moscow.

In the last few weeks, one obstacle after another has fallen. It all started with an agreement between the United States and France in December to send a Patriot anti-aircraft defense system. That was followed by a German commitment last week to provide a Patriot missile battery, and in the span of hours, France, Germany and the United States each promised to send armored fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s battlefields for the first time.

Now it looks likely that modern Western tanks will be added to the growing list of powerful weapons being sent Ukraine’s way, as the United States and its allies take on more risk to defend Ukraine — especially as its military has made unexpected advances and held out against withering assaults.

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While Ukraine has been requesting sophisticated tanks since the start of the war, the push to satisfy those pleas gained speed this week as the British and Polish governments publicly urged a change in the Western alliance’s stance. Although the British indicated they were close to agreeing that a limited number of tanks would be sent, the Polish government declared it would gladly send some German-made tanks to Ukraine, though Berlin would have to permit it.

Ukraine hopes that the increased pressure will persuade Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz to authorize the export to Ukraine of German-made tanks in the arsenals of other NATO allies. The tanks, called the Leopard 2s, are among the most coveted by Kyiv, and experts say that in significant numbers, they would substantially increase Ukraine’s ability to drive back Russian forces.

“Somebody always has to set an example,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Polish state-run broadcaster TVP Info on Thursday.

A spokesperson from the German defense ministry stated that no decision had been taken by Scholz’s government, a Social Democrat. His coalition partners, the Greens, and Free Democrats, support sending tanks. On Thursday, however, a senior minister increased the pressure.

“There is a difference between making a decision for yourself and preventing others from making a decision,” Germany’s economics minister and vice chancellor, Robert Habeck of the Greens, said in Berlin.

The tank, which was designed over a century ago for trench warfare breaking through, is a combination firepower, mobility, and shock effect. Tanks are equipped with large cannons and can move on metal tracks. They also have stronger protection armor than any other weapon on the battlefield.

Officials in Ukraine believe that armored vehicles are crucial in fighting for control of the heavily contested cities and towns in the eastern regions bordering Russia. Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, has said Ukraine needs some 300 Western tanks and about 600 Western armored fighting vehicles to make a difference.

The urgency in sending more powerful weapons partly stems from the grim situation on the battlefield of eastern Ukraine. For months, Russians tried to seize Bakhmut city and surrounding areas. Although they suffered many casualties, they gained very little ground. The fighting in Soledar has been particularly brutal over the past week. It has gone block by block, house to house, and there have been conflicting claims for control of the town.

NATO allies who were once part the Soviet sphere donated their Soviet-era tank to Ukraine. But much of Kyiv’s fleet has been destroyed or worn down by months of battle, and it is running low on ammunition, which is incompatible with Western munitions.

The West has been resisting giving Ukraine its most powerful weapons since the start of the war nearly one year ago. Fearing that this would lead to direct conflict between NATO and Russia, they have resisted doing so. But seeing Ukraine’s determination to resist, little prospect of peace talks anytime soon, and a stalemate on the battlefield, NATO allies are relenting.

The Patriots they recently agreed to are the most advanced American-made air defense system and will help protect Kyiv and other densely populated areas from Russian strikes that have crippled Ukraine’s electricity grid. While lighter and easier than tanks to maneuver on a battlefield, armored combat vehicles approved last week can transport more troops and are less powerful.

Some weapons are still not being considered, such as fighter jets and long-range missiles that could strike occupied Crimea or Russia. The Biden administration is leading the alliance of allies that supplies Ukraine with weapons. They are holding back American-made M1 Abrams tanks. Officials claim they require special fuel and constant upkeep.

Officials from the United States claim that they have not stood in the path of Germany or any other country sending Western tanks to Ukraine. An estimated 2,000 German-made Leopard tank units are in over a dozen European militaries. They could be quickly shipped to Ukraine, if Berlin allows it. However, the Ukrainian crews would have training to use them.

According to a senior Western military official, it is necessary to alter the balance of forces in eastern Ukraine to end the war. This could be done by sending enough Western battle tanks and other combat vehicles to the region. The official stated that without tanks, which are a vital component of ground warfare it is unlikely that Ukraine can win back large amounts of territory.

At the Pentagon, Laura K. Cooper, a deputy assistant secretary of defense, said last week at a briefing that “we absolutely agree that Ukraine does need tanks.”

“This is the right time for Ukraine to take advantage of its capabilities, to change the dynamic on the battlefield,” Cooper said.

Ukraine is determined to continue its military offensive in winter and spring. Russia, too, is telegraphing a spring offensive, said a senior Western intelligence official, and Ukraine “doesn’t want them to catch their breath” between now and when that intensified round of combat begins.

Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who stepped down as NATO’s assistant secretary-general for defense investment late last year, noted that Moscow appears to be mobilizing hundreds of thousands of new conscripts for its offensive. That, in part, pushed forward the debate about tanks, he said, “to enable the Ukrainian forces to achieve significant progress now.”

Part of the discussion, Grand said, focused on whether the tanks would give Ukrainian forces “some sort of a decisive victory that would force peace on the Russians, or at least to achieve such significant progress that any negotiated settlement would be more on their terms than on Russian terms.”

At the Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Jan. 20, senior defense and military officers from many nations will discuss whether to allow Leopards being sent to Ukraine.

Britain has said that it is open to sending 10 Challenger 2 tanks, as little as possible, to Ukraine. Britain is home to 227 Challengers. These tanks are in poor condition and it would be difficult to replenish them.

A senior European diplomat stated that political issues are a part of British officials’ internal debate. Rishi Sunak is the new prime minister and wants to lead the war effort. Britain and Poland seem to be working together to exert pressure on Germany. Sunak, a senior European official, presented a strategy for increasing support for Ukraine during a closed-door session on Tuesday of his National Security Council. It was likely to begin with the tanks in order to give Kyiv an edge over any potential peace negotiations.

But Washington’s explicit approval would be vital to pushing Scholz to authorize the Leopards, as it was crucial to the decision to send the German-made fighting vehicles known as Marders, said Claudia Major, a defense analyst with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.

“Pressure on the Leopards is rising from the Poles, the British and the Finns, but it’s about one particular partner, the United States, which is more equal than the others,” she said. “With the Ramstein meeting coming, I expect it to happen soon.”

Senior Biden administration officials said that Washington had not asked Berlin to send tanks to Ukraine and that Germany would decide its level of military support. Speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue more candidly, he described the discussions between Washington and Berlin as “very active” and said the Germans, “like us, have evolved their willingness to provide capabilities as the fight has changed over time.” The United States has not told allies to refrain from giving Western tanks to Ukraine, the official said.

The Germans regard such a stance as a cop-out, according to Major, reflecting Washington’s own unwillingness to send any Abrams tanks to Ukraine. She said that Scholz could be freed if Washington sent just one Abrams.

Sending tanks supporters are currently focused on getting the first country to move.

Norbert Röttgen, an opposition German legislator and foreign-policy expert, predicted that Scholz would give in on the Leopards under pressure from allies, as he did earlier with German-made howitzers and tracked armored infantry fighting vehicles.

Scholz and his party “want to keep a relationship with Russia and with Putin for the future,” and Scholz “thinks that if he gives Ukraine the best Germany has, Russia will perceive this as breaking a special relationship,” Röttgen said. “But pressure from allies is becoming too strong.”

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