Purchase or fade Edman, Chisholm, Semien?

D.J. Quick and Scott Pianowski dive right into a second base version of purchase or fade at present ADP for a handful of gamers, together with Tommy Edman, Jazz Chisholm and Marcus Semien.

Video Transcript

DJ SHORT: So it is a good segue into gamers we’re by shopping for and fading relative to their present common draft place. For me, I’ll begin this off right here. I’ll say Vaughn Grissom. Now, you simply talked about about gamers switching from type of a less-demanding place to a extra demanding place. And that is what we will see with Vaughn Grissom as he takes over shortstop for Dansby Swanson there with the Braves.

The arm energy is not nice for Grissom. I fear defensively about what he may do there at shortstop, and particularly throughout a time– we talked about this within the final episode. There’s going to be shift restrictions. I believe athleticism within the infield goes to matter quite a bit this season.

So simply measuring that as nicely, I fear concerning the defensive half. The offensive half, I believe there’s additionally questions on Vaughn Grissom. I believe he can get on base. I believe he can hit for common. However I am frightened concerning the energy.

Final season, you take a look at the max exit velocity for Vaughn Grissom, it was within the twenty ninth percentile. That was type of shocking to me as I did my analysis right here for Grissom. Hit 5 homers, had 5 steals over 41 video games final season with the Braves, additionally hit 0.291. However his XBA, anticipated batting common, was 0.259. So if he cannot hit you 20 homers, if he is struggling defensively, if he is not hitting for common, I’m wondering if, at a sure level, the Braves say to themselves, I do not know if he is a daily participant on a group that is going for a World Sequence Championship.

I would not be stunned if, sooner or later, he finally ends up again in AAA this season. Perhaps I am lifeless fallacious. However I’ve some considerations, particularly for somebody whose ADP is the place it’s, 187.39 on NFC proper now.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: No, I believe it’s very legitimate. I used to be upset that it appeared like Dansby Swanson wished to come back again and was prepared to offer the Braves a reasonably good hometown low cost, however the Braves have been going to maneuver on and spend the cash elsewhere. And now, in fact, Swanson is on the Cubs. And–

DJ SHORT: Yeah.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: I believe he is truly slightly bit underrepped. I believe it is type of change into slightly hip to knock Dansby Swanson. However I am nonetheless a Swanson man. We’ll get to him within the shortstop preview.

However Grissom, I do know it is a deep Atlanta lineup. Appears to be like like he will bat ninth. So I do not like that.

DJ SHORT: Yeah, yeah.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Not– batting low in a Nationwide League lineup shouldn’t be the kill shot it was as a result of they’ve the DH now.

DJ SHORT: Proper.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: It was, in case you hit seventh or eighth in entrance of the pitcher, that was actually unhealthy as a result of that is the place lineups– the place rallies go to die. It isn’t as a lot of a kill shot anymore. However I believe your considerations with Grissom, with the defensive change, with the Braves– the Braves are arrange. They received a title two years in the past. They’ve a roster. They suppose they are going to be within the playoffs. They’ll be a World Sequence contender once more.

Grissom shouldn’t be going to have plenty of wiggle room. If he will get off to a sluggish begin, simply may see a demotion, or possibly even they appear into the market in the course of the yr if Grissom is not figuring out possibly they make a transfer only for a short lived remainder of the season factor, a rental, that sort of factor.

I do not like the place he is hitting. I believe there’s much more draw back than upside right here. I am not going to be proactively drafting into Grissom.

A participant I am fading– and I bought him fallacious final yr. I used to be afraid Tommy Edman wouldn’t maintain the leadoff spot–

DJ SHORT: Me too.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: –in St. Louis, he did. However nonetheless, final three years, his OBP is 316. The Cardinals have all types of choices. Now, Edman’s going to maintain his spot within the lineup. He is one among a number of excellent defenders on the Cardinals, which is why I at all times love drafting their pitching employees. It did not save Steven Matz final yr, however no matter.

I imply, they’d 5 Gold Glovers the earlier yr. Edman’s glove will maintain them within the lineup. And he is not a nasty participant. However I may simply see him batting seventh, eighth, or ninth sooner or later. If he will get off to a sluggish begin, there will be higher individuals who match that leadoff spot in St. Louis.

I’ll make the identical guess. I misplaced it final yr.

DJ SHORT: Me too.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: I additionally do not suppose Edman– if there’s extra steals this year– he type of stood out for the previous few years as a result of he was prepared to run in a baseball recreation the place the stolen base was depressed. He is stolen 30-plus bases the final two years. And he is a really high-percentage base stealer. So he is merited to go as typically as he does.

I’m wondering if possibly that is slightly bit much less precious this yr. He is OK at batting common, however only a slight optimistic there, would not have the best energy. For those who draft Edman the place he is going, you want him batting first all season. I am simply involved that he won’t.

DJ SHORT: Yep, that was my precise concern final season. I believe what helps Edman from a enjoying time perspective, his protection is extraordinary. So he will keep on the sphere. However such as you stated, there’s at all times that quantity concern that he finally ends up decrease within the lineup. He might not stand out from a velocity perspective with what we count on to be an uptick in stolen bases. That is a very good level.

Leaping over to gamers we’re shopping for, primary for me at second base– and really, oh, spoiler alert, afterward I will say. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. is my primary fantasy second baseman this season. And we solely bought a snapshot of him final yr. However what we noticed was unbelievable, what he put into 60 video games final yr, 14 house runs, 45 RBIs, 12 steals, 39 runs scored throughout 60 video games.

I imply, in case you challenge that out over a full season, you might be speaking a couple of first round-level expertise, backside line, I imply an early first rounder possibly. In fact, had that stress fracture in his again that ended his season. Truly did not play after June 28 final season, which is loopy. He had surgical procedure for a torn meniscus as nicely.

However I am hoping, clearly, that he reveals as much as spring coaching 100%, going into his age 25 season. February 1 birthday for Jazz Chisholm. Completely happy birthday, Jazz. However I believe, even underlying metrics– you take a look at the numbers he had final year– have been nice. Barrel fee, exhausting hit charges method up from 2021. Amongst gamers with at the very least 150 batted ball occasions final season, Chisholm was seventh in barrels per plate look, simply behind Shohei Ohtani, forward of Austin Riley.

Dash velocity, 94th percentile, that is somebody who might be 30-30 this season. And once more, we talked about Vlad, Jr. in our first base episode, that ceiling– that ceiling that’s so, so engaging to chase after, I am doing that with Jazz Chisholm this yr.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Yeah, I am type of slightly upset to listen to you say that as a result of I hoped I might be forward of market on Jazz Chisholm. And possibly I am simply going to be at market. I’ll must elbow individuals out of the best way if I need him. However what an thrilling participant.

We love power-speed mixtures. We love gamers who’re nonetheless of their 20s who have not had their greatest season but. Not the deepest Miami lineup, however it appears like Jazz goes to hit third behind a few OBP guys in Arraez and Segura. So this ought to be a chance for him to drive in runs.

We’ll see what number of stolen bases he retains if he does bat third. However with a participant who has the kind of expertise that Chisholm has, I might simply give him the inexperienced mild and let him run as a lot as he needs. So I believe that is completely cheap.

The player– my goal, in case you’re going with an arrogance second baseman– and look, it is a skinny place. I do not suppose there’s something fallacious with attacking this place early. For those who go after Jazz Chisholm early, I am with you.

Marcus Semien, individuals want to know the form of his season final yr. He indicators an enormous contract with Texas, will get off to a horrible begin. He had like 5 hits, it seems like, going into Could. And I understand that is going to be transferring the goalposts slightly bit. It is arbitrary endpoints.

However in case you begin in the course of Could and rank all of the fantasy gamers the remainder of the season, Marcus Semien was a primary spherical decide. He was an influence supply. He was an RBI supply. He bought settled, new group. You talked about Texas is throwing plenty of assets into their group. They wish to contend. They wish to be a participant in that very deep American League West.

And it’s a must to take a look at what Semien did the final 18 to twenty weeks of the season. It was on a par with what he did his lastly yr in Toronto. He is like a quasi-MVP candidate. And I believe he had a poor begin. And possibly he was simply urgent slightly bit, new group, making an attempt to justify the large contract.

Some fantasy gamers suppose it is a horrible time to purchase a participant or draft a participant after that massive contract due to these emotional modifications, totally different residing scenario, possibly totally different faculty in your youngsters, that sort of stuff. However no matter it was, as soon as Marcus Semien figured it out final yr and bought snug, he was a primary spherical expertise. And his ADP proper now in NFC is within the mid-30s. I will take him within the second spherical all day.

I’ll have– I’ve already drafted him in some mock drafts, some journal drafts. I do know I will be in on Marcus Semien this yr as a result of, even when the market, quote, unquote, “corrects ” or will get slightly bit extra into Semien– if his ADP is 36 proper now, it is solely a lot greater it might go. I believe he is an ideal second spherical decide.

DJ SHORT: So going a bit later in drafts, it is type of stunning to me to see Brandon Lowe, his ADP at 169.47 on NFC proper now, coming off an injury-plagued yr, hit 0.221, 691 OPS, 8 house runs. However we all know why that occurred. He handled decrease again discomfort, tried to play by it. His again did not reply to a number of injections. He did not play after September 11.

I imply, that’s the reason he had the poor season. So to me, that is a Mulligan. You possibly can type of neglect it, throw it apart. That is somebody who had an 870 OPS over 287 video games between 2019 and 2021, had 30 homers– 39 house runs in 149 video games in 2021. The max exit velocity final yr was nonetheless superb, 83rd percentile.

To me, I am throwing out final yr. And I am getting myself a worth within the center rounds.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Yeah, I prefer it. It may be tougher for me to make that decide, solely as a result of on my most essential group we had Lowe final yr. And we simply waited and waited and waited for him to come back again. After which when he got here again, he wasn’t productive.

However you are so proper that when gamers are damage, it’s a must to give them Mulligans. And do not do deep statistical dives to gamers the place it is a simple– it is Occam’s razor, proper? The best resolution or easiest clarification is so typically appropriate. With Brandon Lowe, it was that he was damage.

And so yeah, the ADP is so low on him. I believe that is going to really appropriate. And he’ll go spherical or two earlier–

DJ SHORT: In all probability.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: –when you get round to drafting. However nonetheless, it is a very nice value. Tampa base proper so typically. One in all my later spherical targets matches that very same damage profile.

Jonathan India was damage final yr, was horrible within the first half. Now, he did come again and had a reasonably good second half. What can we get now? A participant nonetheless in his 20s, a participant in Cincinnati batting second. I am pondering plus-average. I am pondering he’ll hit for some energy. He’ll steal some bases.

I can not assure you the Reds will likely be good. However I do know you need video games in that ballpark as a result of it is one among the– most likely, aside from Coors Discipline, most likely the most effective place to hit within the Main Leagues. And India got here again and confirmed what he can do when he was wholesome. However his full season stats will maintain his ADP depressed. It is a giveaway proper now. I’ll have– if Jonathan India’s value would not appropriate, he will be on a bunch of my rosters.