Explainer – What’s at stake during Turkey’s forthcoming elections
(Reuters) – Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan wants to extend his 20 year rule. These elections will decide not only who leads Turkey, but also how it is governed.
Erdogan has been a champion of religious piety and military-backed diplomacy. Erdogan’s biggest political challenge is the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.
If he loses, his opponents will promise him radical change.
WHAT’S AT RISK IN THIS ELECTION TURKEY…
Erdogan and his Islamist-based AK Party are the most powerful leaders since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded modern Turkey a century ago. They have shifted Turkey away From Ataturk’s secular blueprint.
Erdogan also centralized power in an executive presidency. It is located in a 1,000-room palace at the Ankara edge. This office sets policy for Turkey’s domestic, international, and security affairs.
Critics accuse his government of suppressing dissent, erasing rights, and placing the judicial system under its control. Officials refute this accusation, saying that it has protected citizens against unique security threats such as a 2016 coup attempt.
Economists claim that his calls for low interest rate inflation sent it soaring to a 24-year-high of 85% last. The lira has also fallen to one tenth its dollar value over the past decade, according to economists.
Opposition parties have promised to restore central bank independence and bring back parliamentary governance. They also pledged to introduce a new constitution which enshrines law and order.
…AND THE REST of THE WORLD?
Turkey under Erdogan has demonstrated military power in the Middle East. Turkey launched four incursions in Syria, waged an offensive against Kurdish militants within Iraq, and sent military support to Libyan and Azerbaijan.
Turkey was also involved in diplomatic disputes with Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and also a standoff between Greece and Cyprus over eastern Mediterranean maritime borders. However, Turkey changed its stance two years ago and sought to reach out to some of its regional rivals.
Erdogan’s purchase Russian air defenses from Russia triggered U.S. sanctions against Ankara. His closeness to President Vladimir Putin led critics of Turkey to question its commitment to NATO’s Western defence alliance. Tensions were also raised by Ankara’s objections to NATO applications from Sweden/Finland.
Turkey brokered an agreement for Ukrainian wheat exports. This highlights Erdogan’s role in the effort to end the Ukraine war. It is unclear if a successor will have the same global profile as Erdogan, a point that Erdogan is likely to emphasize in his election campaign.
ECONOMY CAN DRIVE ERDOGAN DOWN
Erdogan’s first 20 years in power were marked by rapid economic growth. But, Erdogan’s popularity has plummeted in the last 10 year.
His AK Party is the strongest and most likely will remain a powerful force within parliament. However, opinion polls show Erdogan trailing other potential opposition presidential candidates.
Erdogan knows that rising costs of living are threatening his re-election chances so he announced a doubling the minimum wage in a package which will also allow more 2 million workers to take early retirement.
WHAT IS THE OPPOSITION PROMISING TO YOU?
The main opposition parties, Republican People’s Party (CHP), and the centre-right nationalist IYI Party (secularist) have joined hands with four smaller parties in a platform which would reverse many Erdogan’s signature policies.
They pledged to restore the independence of the central bank and reverse Erdogan’s unconventional economic policies. They will also replace Erdogan’s executive presidency with the former parliamentary system and return Syrian refugees.
Erdogan supported failed attempts by President Bashar Al-Assad to be overthrown, while Turkey hosted more than 3.6 Million Syrian refugees. This has made Turkey an increasingly difficult place for them amid economic hardships.
Recently, he echoed the opposition’s calls for rapprochement from Damascus. He also talked about returning some refugees. But neither the president or opposition has provided specifics on how that might happen.
What’s stopping the opposition?
Although the six-party alliance is trying to create a platform, it has not yet agreed on a candidate to challenge Erdogan.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu (CHP leader) is seen as a lame campaigner. In December, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, CHP’s mayor of Istanbul was sentenced to jail and banned from politics for insulting election officials. This conviction he is currently challenging.
Turkey’s top court is currently hearing a case to close down the third largest parliamentary party, The pro-Kurdish peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). It has also frozen some accounts. Selahattin Demirtas (ex-leader of HDP) has been imprisoned since 2016 for inflicting insults on the president.
Opinion parties may have a harder time getting their message out once the campaign has started. They struggled to get airtime on Turkish television channels, which tend to be strongly in support of Erdogan, during the 2018 presidential election.
WHAT IS NEXT
Erdogan’s party said that they could be brought forward, despite the fact that the deadline for voting is in June.
Although the election of the candidate for the opposition alliance may be crucial to their victory chances, there will be other factors that impact on their chances including inflation prospects.
Erdogan suggested the possibility of a summit between Syria’s Assad and Erdogan, which could be a first step towards discussions on the future of refugees. Erdogan’s popularity could be helped by Ankara’s warnings that it has been warning for months that it is planning for a new offensive against northern Syria, targeting Kurdish fighters.
(Reporting by Dominic Evans, Editing by Jonathan Spicer, and Catherine Evans