Five Week 16 matchups you should exploit
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Schedule-adjusted fantasy point allowed aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. We can remove bias and make matchups more comparable. The data will continue to change as the season progresses. Regardless, aFPA can be used to build lineups or waivers.
Another point I want to mention: I could offer players the following Josh Allen And Patrick Mahomes They are often faced with bad units, according to aFPA, almost every week. It is a disservice to everyone, so I will try my hardest not to have fantasy players in any fantasy leagues.
These are the top plays for Week 16, the penultimate week in this column.
There won’t be many games east side the Mississippi River that offer good playing conditions. In Week 16, cold, snow, wind and rain or any combination of these conditions will all play a part. But not this one! Jones is awarded a Minnesota roof against a Minnesota team that allowed him to. Indianapolis Colts Last week, the Vikings scored 33 points in halftime. The Vikings rank 31st in QB aFPA (32nd against WRs), and will face an offensive that is low on talent, but high on coaching acumen. First-year head coach Brian Daboll Jones is one beneficiary of this week’s transformation of rotten fruit to fruit cake. Since Week 5, the Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to pass for more than 300 yards per game and/or multiple touchdown passes. Jones has also shown a lot of rushing potential, with Jones rushing for 20 yards in 12 out of 14 games.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. McKinnon’s usage and production have risen each of the past three weeks. He could be separated from Seattle by his matchup against him. Isiah Pacheco The remainder of the NFL playoffs and fantasy games. Seattle is the team that allows the most schedule-adjusted fantasy point to running backs. This is due to Seattle giving up six receptions per week to the position. McKinnon has received 17 receptions over the last two weeks due to injuries to the WR position. Even with Kadarius Toney Back and Mecole Hardman Mahomes expects to be back this week. It is evident that Mahomes has faith in the veteran RB. McKinnon has been putting up Austin EkelerDespite being a waiverwire pickup, these numbers are similar and the Chiefs’ offense has a new level.
Amon-Ra St. Brown It’s not an every-week lock but it’s the depth receivers that deserve FLEX consideration. Carolina is ranked 30th in WR aFPA. Jaycee HornThe secondary is lacking. Horn cannot stop/slow down receivers even though he is playing at a Pro Bowl-level level. Carolina is being heavily targeted in the passing game. The defense allows 14.14/158.29/0.79 per match to that position. Five Panthers were allowed. Steelers In Week 15, receivers caught a pass. Three Seahawks wideouts received at least five receptions, 60 yard and a touchdown. D.J. Chark, Josh Reynolds And even more Jameson Williams You should be the last player in your team.
The Buccaneers offense makes it difficult to target players that aren’t named. Mike Evans And Chris GodwinIt is okay to be excited when the Cardinals are on their schedule. Otton has played more snaps each week since the team’s Week 11 bye and has supplanted Cameron Brate as the TE1. Otton has been feasting or famine ever since his bye. He’s collected 0, 5, 10, and 1 targets in the last month. Even as a low-end TE1 option this week, Otton’s upside could end up with him as a top-five finisher at the position. As the 32nd-ranked defense for TE aFPA, Arizona has allowed 12 double-digit touchdowns. There is also a touchdown upside. Juwan Johnson And George Kittle Each had two-TD games against Cardinals and the Saints added a tight end TD against Arizona. Taysom Hill He actually ran quite a few routes. Chiefs are another offense that scores multiple TE touchdowns.
Although Tennessee has experienced a decline in sack percentage, sacks per match and sacks per games since 2021, it has still been productive at home. Their home sack rate of 5.98% rises to 6.48%, which isn’t great, but it’s worth noting. The Titans also get a Texans offense that allows the most fantasy points to defenses. There are three of them: Davis Mills, Kyle Allen And Jeff DriskelHouston’s QB position throws 1.14 TDs and 1.14 INTs per match. Houston has seen a slight improvement in sack percentage from 2021. However, if the offense is not improving, Houston will continue to see a decrease in sack percentage. Brandin Cooks and/or Nico CollinsTexans WRs have the opportunity to take open dips with Chris Moore remaining the only consistent target.
Target the Titans if you believe there is more coal in your stockings this week. Los Angeles Rams Christmas Day home matchup against the Denver BroncosAn offense that gift-wraps turnovers and gives sacks to the opposing defense.
Note: This column will end after Week 17.
This story originally appeared on 4for4.com
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Jeff has been playing fantasy sports since 2001. For the better part a decade, he has been covering fantasy and traditional sports at all levels, including the amateur, semi-pro and professional. Born in Illinois, he currently lives where James Robinson Jeff has made a name in college. He enjoys running and then doing absolutely nothing.