NFC Playoff Confidence Rankings for all 7 teams at each position
It’s playoff time, finally. Just 24 hours remain for the AFC and NFC to begin their bracket-style eliminations. Each conference has sent seven teams to its own single-elimination tournament after playing 17 games over 18 weeks. In the AFC, it’s a collection of young star quarterbacks and their supporting casts built around them. In the NFC there’s more of a mixture between veteran savvy and youthful exuberance competing for top-dog status. We all know what the seedings look like, but how do we determine who has the best chance of emerging from them?
Confidence Rankings is a bit I’ve borrowed from Mike and Mike, the now-defunct ESPN radio simulcast from years back. A team is awarded points based on how confident they should be in each of the position groups or facets.
If Dallas’ quarterback situation inspires the most confidence compared to the rest of the NFC field, Dallas would get a ‘1’. The next team would get a ‘2’, next team a ‘3’ and so on through the field.
Add up all the positions and calculate the total score. The team with three lowest scores wins three internets.
The rankings can be viewed for each category. At the end, you’ll find summaries of each team.
Quarterbacks
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Jalen Hurts Eagles (+7)
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Tom Brady, Buccaneers(+6)
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Dak Prescott, Cowboys (+5)
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Kirk Cousins (+4)
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Brock Purdy (49ers) (+3)
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Geno Smith, Seahawks (+2)
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Daniel Jones, Giants (+1)
Hurts has been the best QB in the NFC this season and if he’s healthy the question is whether he’ll wilt in the playoffs. Brady might be Methusela, but he still had an incredible DVOA this year. He also played a staggering 45 playoff games. This was nearly enough to make him the No. 1 here. Prescott is the greatest talent among these guys. However, his pockets skiddishness due to his environment is a big knock.
Cousins can’t play in primetime, Purdy just doesn’t have enough skins on the wall, Smith has been living a charmed existence, and Jones will eventually have to make risky throws to advance.
Running backs
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Cowboys (+7)
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49ers (+6)
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Eagles (+5)
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Giants (+4)
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Vikings (+3)
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Seahawks (+2)
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Bucs (+1)
The interesting thing is neither Dallas or Philly’s run game are setting the world on fire right now. Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard, as far as talent goes, are the best in the field. It’s the blocking that’s suspect. There’s a lot of talent in this group, where the Seahawks are sixth with a 1,000-yard rusher. Only Tampa’s run game is a struggle bus.
Wide Receivers
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Eagles (+7)
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Vikings (+6)
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Seahawks (+5)
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Bucs (+4)
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49ers (+3)
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Cowboys (+2)
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Giants (+1)
The Eagles boast a 1,500-yard receiver with 18 TDs and a 1,200 yard guy. That sneaks them past the Vikings’ three-headed tandem led by the league’s best in Justin Jefferson. Seattle boasts two 1,000-yarders, as does the Buccaneers.
Strenuous Ends
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49ers (+7)
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Eagles (+6)
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Seahawks (+5)
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Cowboys (+4)
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Vikings (+3)
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Giants (+2)
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Bucs (+1)
It’s George Kittle, Dallas Goedert and then everyone else, though the Cowboys’ use of their tight ends sneaks them past the better talent in Minnesota.
Offensive Lines
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Eagles (+7)
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49ers (+6)
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Vikings (+5)
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Cowboys (+4)
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Bucs (+3)
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Giants (+2)
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Seahawks (+1)
It is entirely dependent on Lane Johnson being at least 80%. Philly falls to third if Lane Johnson is not at least 80%.
DL Run Stopping
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49ers (+7)
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Cowboys (+6)
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Bucs (+5)
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Vikings (+4)
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Eagles (+3)
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Seahawks (+2)
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Giants (+1)
It’s going to surprise people to see Dallas ranked this highly, but they really are a much better run defense than their reputation and yardage allowed. While their pass rush was exceptional, teams chose to slow down and concentrate on the run. Their DVOA depends on their opponent strength and the game situation.
Rush to get your Pass
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Eagles (+7)
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Cowboys (+6)
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49ers (+5)
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Vikings (+4)
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Bucs (+3)
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Seahawks (+2)
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Giants (+1)
These three elite rushes are easily separated from the rest of conference.
Linebackers Off-Ball
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49ers (+7)
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Bucs (+6)
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Cowboys (+5)
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Eagles (+4)
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Vikings (+3)
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Seahawks (+2)
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Giants (+1)
There’s an entire gulf here between the 49ers and the rest of the conference, with Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner setting the pace. The scoring system is as it is, with the Bucs having Lavonte David being the next best player, which keeps them above the mediocre Philly and Dallas groups.
Secondary
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49ers (+7)
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Eagles (+6)
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Cowboys (+5)
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Bucs (+4)
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Vikings (+3)
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Seahawks (+2)
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Giants (+1)
Special Teams
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Seahawks (+7)
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Cowboys (+6)
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Eagles (+5)
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49ers (+4)
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Giants (+3)
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Vikings (+2)
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Buccaneers (+1)
Coaching
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49ers (+7)
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Cowboys (+6)
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Seahawks (+5)
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Eagles (+4)
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Giants (+3)
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Bucs (+2)
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Vikings (+1)
This is a very tough category to grade, because it’s impossible not to favor historical track records, of which many of the groups have none. Kyle Shanahan’s system is the deciding factor here, along with what his teams have accomplished. The big-game experience of Mike McCarthy and Dan Quinn and Kellen Moore’s consistently top-of-league rankings puts Dallas second, slightly ahead of Pete Carroll’s lengthy history of success in the Northwest.
All Rankings
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49ers – 62 pts
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Eagles – 61 pts
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Cowboys – 56 pts
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Vikings – 38 pts
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Bucs – 36 pts
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Seahawks – 35 pts
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Giants – 20 pts
This shouldn’t be surprising as the 49ers are likely the top NFC seed this season if they didn’t give Trey Lance the job through training camp. They were out of pocket for the first three weeks.
The Eagles are next, with the current health status of Hurts and Johnson being something that could potentially knock them down to the Cowboys’ level.
There’s a wide gulf to the next tier, with the Giants looking like the worst team, by far.
Maybe that should bump them up the coaching grades, we’ll soon find out.
Offensive Rankings
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Eagles – 32 pts
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49ers – 25 pts
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Cowboys – 22 pts
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Vikings – 21 pts
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Seahawks – 15 pts
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Buccaneers – 15 pts
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Giants – 10 pts
Defensive Rankings
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49ers – 26 points
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Cowboys – 22 points
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Eagles – 20 pts
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Bucs – 18 pts
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Vikings – 14 pts
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Seahawks – 8 pts
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Giants – 4 pts
Dallas Cowboys Rankings
Kirby Lee USA TODAY Sports
TOTAL CONFIDENCE – 3rd
QB – 5th
RB – 1st
WR – 6th
TE – 4th
OL – 4th
DL RUN – 2nd
PASS RUSH – 2nd
OFF-BALL LB – 3rd
SECONDARY – 3rd
SPECIAL TM – 2nd
COACHING – 2nd
Philadelphia Eagles Rankings
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
TOTAL CONFIDENCE – 2nd
QB – 1st
RB – 3rd
WR – 1st
TE – 2nd
OL – 1st
DL RUN – 5th
PASS RUSH – 1st
OFF-BALL LB – 4th
SECONDARY – 2nd
SPECIAL TM – 3rd
COACHING – 4th
San Francisco 49ers Rankings
Maria Lysaker – USA TODAY Sports
TOTAL CONFIDENCE – 1st
QB – 5th
RB – 2nd
WR – 5th
TE – 1st
OL – 2nd
DL RUN – 1st
PASS RUSH – 3rd
OFF-BALL LB – 1st
SECONDARY – 1st
SPECIAL TM – 4th
COACHING – 1st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rankings
Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports
TOTAL CONFIDENCE – 6th
QB – 2nd
RB – 7th
WR – 4th
TE – 7th
OL – 5th
DL RUN – 3rd
PASS RUSH – 5th
OFF-BALL LB – 2nd
SECONDARY – 4th
SPECIAL TM – 7th
COACHING – 6th
Minnesota Vikings Rankings
(Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images).
TOTAL CONFIDENCE – 4th
QB – 4th
RB – 5th
WR – 2nd
TE – 5th
OL – 3rd
DL RUN – 4th
PASS RUSH – 4th
OFF-BALL LB – 5th
SECONDARY – 5th
SPECIAL TM – 6th
COACHING – 7th
Seattle Seahawks Rankings
Kirby Lee USA TODAY Sports
TOTAL CONFIDENCE – 5th
QB – 6th
RB – 6th
WR – 3rd
TE – 3rd
OL – 7th
DL RUN – 6th
PASS RUSH – 6th
OFF-BALL LB – 6th
SECONDARY – 6th
SPECIAL TM – 1st
COACHING – 3rd
New York Giants Rankings
[Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
TOTAL CONFIDENCE – 7th
QB – 7th
RB – 4th
WR – 7th
TE – 6th
OL – 6th
DL RUN – 7th
PASS RUSH – 7th
OFF-BALL LB – 7th
SECONDARY – 7th
SPECIAL TM – 5th
COACHING – 5th