This unexpected edge could make a difference in Cowboys vs Bucs.
The Dallas Cowboys opened their 2022 season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 19-3 loss to quarterback Dak Prescott, safety Jayron Kearse and left-guard Connor McGovern. They would all return to help the Cowboys achieve a 12-5 record. This is the first 12-win consecutive year since the 93–94 seasons.
The Bucs. They could not regain their success on the ground ground and sustained multiple injuries to their offensive line during their 8-9 record.
We open the Advanced Stat Notebook each week to see how each team ranks in EPA and DVOA, ANY/A, and Toxic Differential. These four metrics are highly correlated with win probability.
Defense-Adjusted Valu Over Average (DVOA), Football Outsiders
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images).
DVOA measures each play’s success relative to the league average by using percentage points above and below average. The metric measures down distance, field location, quarter, and opponent quality.
Teams with DVOA are seeking a higher offensive percentage and a lower defensive percentage. Special teams and offenses must perform above league average. Defenses must perform below league average.
Information via Football Outsiders.
DVOA Offense
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The Bucs have a DVOA rating of 17.9% which is two spots higher than that of the Cowboys. This makes them 11th overall.
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While the Tampa Bay offense was able to pass DVOA in a relatively close game, things turn ugly when it comes to rushing. Thier ground game is 30th, with a DVOA at -18.6%. The Cowboys are 20th with a 1.2% DVOA. The Cowboys have a major advantage.
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Overall, offensive DVOA was very close. The two teams finished one spot apart with a difference only 2.5%. The Cowboys rank 15th, with a DVOA score of 2.9%, and the Bucs rank 16.
Offensive Advantage Cowboys (2 from 3)
DVOA Defense
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Cowboys have a huge advantage in defensive passing DVOA. The Cowboys have a DVOA ranking of -11.3% and the Bucs rank fifteenth with a positive 2.7%.
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Both teams have held opponents running games to negative DVOA’s. The Cowboys rank fifth overall with a -15.7% DVOA, eight spots higher than the Bucs’ -10.4% DVOA.
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With a DVOA score of -13.3%, the Cowboys hold the edge in defensive DVOA. The Bucs rank eleven spots lower at -2.9%.
Cowboys (of 3): Defensive Advantage
Overall Advantage: Cowboys (5 from 6)
Expected points added and success rate
(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)
EPA measures how a play affects the chance of scoring. EPA takes yardage, field position, down, distance into account when determining the expected net points for the situation. A goal or a first at the one yard line would result in EP-Expected Points that are higher than a third and 10 at the 20 yard line.
EPA refers to the difference in Expected Points at the start and end of a play. It is used to measure the impact of plays on the game’s score.
The success rate measures how often teams are able to get 40 percent of the required yards on their first down, 60 on their second down, and 100% on their third or fourth down.
EPA figures gathered rbsdm.
EPA: Offense
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The Cowboys are ranked 10 spots higher in EPA/play. They average.031 more points than expected per snap. The Bucs offense has an EPA/play score of -.031.
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The Cowboys offense is ranked ninth overall, five spots better than the Bucs. They have a passing EPA per dropnack score of.082.
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At -.031 per carries, the Cowboys’ run game is 12th in rushing EPA/play. The average -.208 EPA per play for the Bucs offense is 32nd in league.
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The Cowboys finished the sweep with a success rate of 45.2%. This is seven points more than the Bucs.
Cowboys are an offensive advantage
EPA: Defense
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Cowboys’ defense ranks among the top units in the NFL and has held opponents to -.087 EPA/play, the second highest rate in the league. With an EPA of -.025/play, the Bucs are nine places below.
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The Cowboys have the fourth best EPA/dropback, holding QB’s to -.059 EPA play. The outcome of this playoff matchup could be decided by this key matchup, as the Bucs boast a powerful passing attack.
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It may surprise you that Cowboys defense ranks fourth in EPA allowed opponents to -.126/EPA each carry. With an EPA rate of -.084/carry the Bucs rank 12th.
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Both teams are among the top 10, but the Cowboys have the edge with a success ratio of 41.4%.
Cowboys have a defensive advantage
Overall Advantage: Cowboys ( 8 out of 8 EPA categories).
Toxic Differential:Toxicity
(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images
Toxicity (also known as toxic differential) is the summation of explosive plays generated by an offense and the defense’s ability to allow explosive plays. Then, you add the turnover margin.
Under Brian Billick’s formula, explosive plays are defined as passing plays over 20 yards and rushing plays over 10 yards.
Toxic Differential: Offense
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The Cowboys offense was able to produce 50 spectacular passing plays this season, which is one more than the Bucs. The Cowboys averaged 2.94 passing yards over 20+ yards during this season.
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Although passing was very close, explosive running plays made a significant difference. The Bucs could only produce 20 more runs in the second half of the season after seven explosive runs against the Cowboys. This season, the Cowboys ran 62 times for more than 10 yards.
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Both defenses did a good job protecting the football. This season, the Bucs gave away 22 footballs to their fans. That’s one less than that of the Cowboys.
Cowboys: 50 explosive passes+ 62 explosive runs= 112 explosive plays.
112 explosive plays – 23 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 89.
Bucs: 49 explosive passes+ 27 explosive runs= 76 explosive plays.
76 explosive plays – 22 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 54.
Cowboys are an offensive advantage
Toxic Differential – Defense
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The Bucs defense did a fantastic job of limiting explosive passing plays. It allowed only 41 games, an average of 2.41 per game.
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The Cowboys were plagued by explosive runs all season, allowing 67 points on the year, or 3.94/game. The Bucs defense also allowed big runs, but gave up 12 more points than the Cowboys.
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The Cowboys have a significant advantage in takeaways. They generated a league-leading 33 takeaways last season, 13 more than Bucs.
Cowboys: 43 explosive passes+ 67 explosive runs= 110 explosive plays.
110 explosive plays – 33 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 77.
Bucs:41 explosive passes+ 55 explosive runs=96 explosive plays
96 explosive plays –20 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 76.
Bucs have a defensive advantage
Total Toxicity can be calculated by subtracting the offensive total from the defensive total.
Cowboys Toxicity: Offense 89 – Defense 77 = Overall Toxicity +12
Bucs Toxicity: Offense 54 – Defense 76= Overall Toxicity -22
Overall Advantage: Cowboys
ANY/A
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images.
The Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt or ANY/A formula incorporates passing yards, touchdowns and interceptions to create a per-throw average. Any/A is directly related to scoring points, and ranks third in win predictability.
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With a difference between the two teams of.04 yards per try, the Bucs have an advantage in ANY/A.
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Any/A against has a greater edge, with the Cowboys winning by.60 yards per try.
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At.078, the Cowboys have an overall ANY/A differential that is.56 yards higher per attempt.
Advantage: Cowboys
All-inclusive Recap
(AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)
Toxicity: Cowboys (4 out of 8), but lead in overall toxicity
DVOA: Cowboys (5 of 6)
EPA: Cowboys (8 of 8)
ANY/A Cowboys (2 out 3)
Overall: Cowboys (lead 19, of 25 metrics).