Five of the Best Bets Against The Spread
Five of our best predictions for Divisional Round Round 2 of the NFL Playoffs. What do you think are the best bets or picks?
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The Wild Card round features a buffet with various carbs, fillers and other goodies. The Divisional Round includes the prime rib, crab legs, and the divisional round.
This is it. This is all for the true NFL fans. The Super Bowl … your mom watches the Super Bowl. This is the weekend that we get the best bulk game. Championship Sunday is huge. There are four of them who take on a whole new life.
I’ll try to find the five best picks against the spread – and point totals – out of them.
As I mentioned for the Wild Card round, with so few games to choose from, the reasonable goal is to bat .600, and I got that last week going 3-2 thanks to the obvious call of Dallas over Tampa Bay and Jacksonville’s easy-peasy walk in the park win – and the over – against the Chargers (yeeeeeeeeeeeeesh).
I overestimated Buffalo, underestimated San Francisco, and I might just do it again – at least with the latter – starting with …
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5. NFL Playoffs Dallas at San Francisco
LINE San Francisco -4
PICK THE ATS Dallas
Warning, I’m going to underestimate the guy yet again – it hasn’t been working well for me.
Insanity does not mean doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. However, picking against Brock Purdy hasn’t exactly shown sound judgement so far.
This guy was absolutely amazing.
If it was, say, Kenny Pickett, or Sam Howell, or even Trey Lance, he’d be hailed as the next big NFL thing. But because he’s Brock Purdy, and because he’s a third-string option, and because he was Mr. Irrelevant – that whole tag and bit annoys me for some reason; does that mean Travon Walker was Mr. Relevant? – it’s hard to fully buy in.
Every NFL quarterback has had a clunker at one point. But seriously? 67%, 13 touchdowns, four picks. Are you a good starter in big games like these?
This article is about Dallas.
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Going along with the name recognition thing, if this wasn’t Dallas, and if it wasn’t carrying all this baggage and all of these expectation, it might be favored.
Time is my biggest worry. San Francisco played Saturday morning, Dallas on Monday night and Dallas had to travel. Two extra days are coming up for the 49ers. That’s a problem, but I’m going with talent.
Dallas has the combination of offensive firepower and defensive playmaking that the 49ers – and Purdy – haven’t had to deal with yet. I’d like to be getting a little more than four, but I’ll take it.
And I’ll probably pick against Purdy in the NFL Championship, too.
Speaking of digging the underdog on the road …
CFN Experts Picks: Cowboys at 49ers
NEXT NFL Pick Against Spread No. 4: Cincinnati at Buffalo
4. NFL Playoffs Cincinnati at Buffalo
LINE Buffalo -5.5
PICK THE ATS Cincinnati
Buffalo scares me.
As I wrote up in the game preview, this isn’t the Buffalo team of last year at this time. It’s making more mistakes, and it’s struggling to put teams away.
Last year’s team would’ve picked its teeth with the Dolphins in that Wild Card game.
But it puts up a bazillion points – more on that in a later blurb – it’s at home, and it’s got the game it’s been been waiting for. All that, and for all my whining about how it’s not the same team, it has 13 wins with nine of them by a touchdown or more.
I would like to see the Bengals at least give this a fight.
I can’t quite get there and take them outright – they weren’t exactly razor sharp against the Ravens – but they’re in the same boat as Buffalo. This is the game and the moment they’ve been waiting for – sort of.
Buffalo’s been dreaming of righting the last year wrong and playing the Chiefs. The Bengals seem like they want this one – for now – if I’m overreacting correctly to how both sides seem to be acting.
The Cincinnati defense is playing well, Joe Burrow isn’t going to be bothered by any of the noise, and this should come down to a late kick or big moment.
I’m still picking Buffalo to win – the Cincinnati offensive line will fail at some point – but 5.5 is good enough.
CFN Experts Picks: Bengals at Bills
Next: NFL Pick Against the Spread No. 3 Jacksonville at Kansas City
3. NFL Playoffs Jacksonville at Kansas City
POINT TOTAL 52.5
PICK THE ATS It’s Over
I will not do so under any circumstances.
If you keep your defenses in sync, unders can be as much fun as overs. I actually prefer the 3-0 first quarter on the under instead of the 17-10 first quarter on an over – it’s sort of more satisfying.
Yeah, that’s not happening in the Divisional Round of your NFL Playoffs.
I can’t quite get there with the 48 on Giants-Eagles, but the other three games have the potential to be high-flying fun.
Really? You think the Kansas City offense that’s been waiting to get rolling will limp its way to 17 points? It scored less than 20 points once.
Here’s concern – Kansas City 27, Jacksonville 17. This was Week 10, and the Chief defense was just enough to stop the Jaguars going off.
Although the Chiefs have been scoring regularly, their offense has been inconsistent. The Chiefs should be able reach 20, but will that be enough to make it to 20?
Yeah. In five of its last nine games, the D allowed at least 27 goals. The four times it conceded fewer goals were against weak Tennessee (twice), Jet and Houston offenses. It’s going to give up at least 27.
No one gives up more touchdown passes than the Chiefs, someone’s getting to 30 in this, and there’s a good shot Patrick Mahomes and company take care of most of the heavy lifting on their own.
But I get it. 52.5 is a big number, so …
CFN Expert Picks: Jaguars at Chiefs
Next: NFL Pick Against Spread No. 2 Dallas at San Francisco Part 2
2. NFL Playoffs Dallas at San Francisco
POINT TOTAL 46
PICK THE ATS It’s Over
Yes, the Dallas defense has good qualities. It’s 12th in the NFL overall and fifth in scoring D.
Yes, San Francisco’s defense is great. It’s partly because it fattened up the stats on a slew of teams watching on their couches, but yeah, it’s No. It is No. 1 in scoring and total defense.
Geno Smith and DK metcalf scored 23 points to that defense.
It’s possible to score on this bunch. It had a stretch of eight games when it allowed 20 points or fewer, but again, it’s not like it was going against Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen during the run.
The Minnesota offense was beaten by Dallas in a victory of 40-3. They allowed only 20 points seven times.
But don’t be fooled. You’re not closing out your weekend of NFL Playoff games by thinking this will be 23-20.
San Francisco has scored 33 points or more in six of the last seven games, and seven of the last eight. Dallas isn’t getting held under 20.
You’re fine with the over on 46.
Speaking of “you’re not going under on this” …
CFN Experts Picks: Cowboys at 49ers
Next: NFL Pick Against the Spread No. 1 Cincinnati at Buffalo
1. NFL Playoffs Cincinnati at Buffalo
POINT TOTAL 48.5
PICK THE ATS It’s Over
There is no way.
You haven’t come this far as a football fan and waited so long for this game to go under. You know you’re going over. It’s a moral imperative.
They were set for a fierce fight before the cancellation and the nightmare. They’re not going to hold back, and they’re certainly not going to rely on controlling the clock and getting the running games going.
As soon as one team goes on a crisp, efficient scoring drive … GAME ON.
This is something that both coaches and players know. Don’t bother showing up if you think 24 points will get it done.
Cincinnati has been held to less than 23 in its 15 last games. Buffalo was held to less than 23 only three times throughout the year.
Start with this – one side is going to score at least 30. If you think the loser in this won’t get past 17, then okay, you might be right. Enjoy your under and the 7 layer dip, which really only has 5 layers.
This game is too fun not to play. If it doesn’t work, enjoy the show, tip your cap, and it’s on to Cowboys-49ers.
CFN Experts Picks: Bengals at Bills
Predictions by Divisional Experts for the NFL Playoffs
Jaguars at Chiefs | Giants at Eagles
Bengals at Bills | Cowboys at 49ers