Five keys to Packers defeating the Lions in the regular season finale
If the Green Bay Packers (8-8) beats the Detroit Lions (8-8), they can win a playoff slot. If the Rams defeat the Seahawks on Sunday, the primetime matchup between NFC North rivals could end up as a win-and in game for both sides.
Can the Packers win the fifth consecutive game to clinch the No. 7 seed in NFC Or will Dan Campbell’s team spoil the party at Lambeau Field?
These are the five keys to Sunday’s win for the Packers over the Lions:
Be the best running team
Expect the Lions to commit to the run game and force the Packers – who beat mostly pass-first teams during the four-game win streak – to prove up to the task at the line of scrimmage. The Lions are physical and tough up front, and they will almost certainly try to take control of the game with the run. The Packers don’t necessarily need to finish the game with more rushing yards, but being the more efficient run team overall is critical. The Lions defense gives up 5.3 yards per rush, and can be bullied in the front seven. In a Lambeau Field game at night, the team that runs the ball efficiently and controls the run better on defense will win. The Packers can’t let the Lions – a dome team playing outdoors – to be that team.
Take the fight to turnover
The Lions (15 total turnovers), protect the ball better than any other football team. Over the past month, the Packers have taken it away more than any other team in football (12 takeaways from last four games). There has to be something on Sunday night. Can the Packers consistently put Jared Goff – who hasn’t thrown an interception in eight games – into tough spots? It will be necessary to stop Goff’s early downs runs and force him to throw the ball against third-and-long coverage. Take this as an example: The Lions are 7-1 with no turnovers this season, but Goff is 1-7 with at most one turnover. If the Packers win the turnover battle, they will feel good about winning this game. Back in Week 9, three interceptions thrown by Aaron Rodgers – including two in the end zone – doomed Green Bay.
You can win the situational war
The Lions are very aggressive in fourth down and great in the redzone. Dan Campbell’s team has 35 fourth-down attempts this season, highlighting his willingness to take a risk in terms of extending a drive or scoring more points. This season, the Lions offense ranks fourth in red zone touchdown percentage. It is evident that their aggressiveness pays off. Defense: The Lions rank 30th in third down percentage and 27th red-zone touchdown percent. So the Packers will have many opportunities to extend drives and score seven goals within the 20. How crucial is the situational fight? In the first meeting, the Packers were just 1-for-4 on fourth down. They also scored 0 touchdowns in the redzone.
Take on the special teams challenge
Over the last two months, the Packers and Lions have both been among the NFL’s best on special teams. And each team has a dangerous returner: Keisean Nixon is the NFL’s most productive kickoff returner, while Kalif Raymond has one of the league’s only punt return touchdowns this season. Michael Badgley, Lions kicker, has made 18 of 21 kicks for 2022. Jack Fox is averaging nearly 49 yards per kick and launching touchbacks with almost 77% of kickoffs. Over the last two January games at Lambeau Field (loss to 49ers in the playoffs, win over the Vikings), the Packers found out – in vivid detail – just how important special teams can be this time of year. Good plays can change games; bad plays can lose games.
Be the most explosive team
The Lions only scored 15 points in the first meeting, but don’t underestimate the explosive ability of Detroit’s offense entering the finale. The Lions have scored at least 30 points six times in the eight previous games. Running back D’Andre Swift averages 5.6 yards per carry and has eight runs over 15 yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a YAC monster who has 13 catches of at least 20 yards and both DJ Chark and Jameson Williams are speedsters who can win downfield. Although this team is loaded with weapons, the Packers have been doing a better job of limiting big plays. Can Joe Barry’s defense force the Lions to march down the field methodically in order to score? On offense, don’t be surprised if Aaron Rodgers and the passing game hit a few big plays off run action on Sunday night. If the Packers offensive line performs well, the Packers passing will be productive.