Bushfires May Follow Floods as Climate Chaos Grips Australia

(Bloomberg) — Australia could be heading for a period of drought and intense bushfires toward the end of the year as the nation grapples with climate extremes that’s costing the economy billions of dollars.

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Parts of Australia are already reeling from heavy rain and flooding that’s damaged crops, swept away roads and cost lives. La Nina, an atmospheric phenomenon that causes chaotic weather, has led to this chaos. However climate scientists see warmer and drier conditions in the future.

“The most likely scenario for later this year is El Nino,” according to Scott Power, director of the Centre for Applied Climate Sciences at the University of Southern Queensland. The weather pattern brings Australia higher-than-average temperatures.

The world is experiencing its third straight year of La Nina, something that’s only happened twice since 1950. Australia is the least populated continent, and climate change’s impact can be especially severe. In the 2021-22 fiscal years, floods cost the economy $3.5 billion. This was after devastating bushfires that occurred in the summer 2019-20.

According to Agus Santoso (a climate scientist at The University of New South Wales), excessive plant growth has occurred over the last three years. This could make it more difficult for bushfires to occur if the weather becomes hotter and dryer.

Another climatologist agrees. “All you need really is a hot day with some wind and something to start a fire, and off you go,” said Janette Lindesay, a professor at the Australian National University.

Extended wet weather makes it more difficult to conduct so-called fuel reduction burning. Authorities use controlled fires in order to reduce easily combustible dead or dried vegetation.

Climate models by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology indicate La Nina has weakened from its peak in 2022. A compilation of average international estimates on the department’s website signals conditions edging toward El Nino, but the bureau cautioned on long-range forecasts.

In late 2019 and early 2020, bushfires destroyed an area roughly the same size as the UK and decimated 1 billion of the country’s native animals. The prospect of more extreme weather is causing concerns for farmers who are worried that they won’t be able to plant crops in coming months. Australia is one of the world’s biggest grain exporters.

“It’s not a given we are going to be able to plant canola, or barley, or wheat in a few months time,” said Xavier Martin, the president of NSW Farmers. “It’s been more uncertain in the last five years than it has been in the previous decades.”

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