How the Panthers quickly went from Cup contenders into playoff pretenders

The 2021-22 regular campaign was magical for the Florida Panthers, who won their first-ever Presidents’ Trophy after finishing with a league-best 122 points. However, this season the team has fallen to an unprecedented level.

The team currently stands at 16-18-4, with 36 points in 38 contests. It is good for the 13th (!!). in the Eastern Conference. That puts them eight points shy of the final wild-card seed — currently owned by the Pittsburgh Penguins — and needing to leapfrog five franchises to surge back into contention.

The Panthers have dug themselves a pretty large hole through the first half of 2022-23, but with 44 games remaining, there’s still time to salvage this campaign. As of now, though, they’re trending toward being on the wrong side of history.

Since the Presidents’ Trophy was first awarded in 1986, only three winners have missed the playoffs the following season: the 1992-93 New York Rangers, the 2007-08 Buffalo Sabres and the 2014-15 Boston Bruins.

The Rangers went from the top of their class to 19th overall in just one season, earning only 79 points, which remains the worst year-to-year decline since ‘86. They did, however, regain form in a hurry, capturing both the Presidents’ Trophy and Stanley Cup in 1993–94.

Buffalo dropped to 18th overall, scoring 90 points. They were four points behind the final playoff spot after their first-overall season. Boston came even closer during its post Presidents’ Trophy-winning campaign, ranking 17th overall and missing the postseason by just two points.

Barring a dramatic mid-season turnaround, the Panthers are on pace to topple the ‘93 Rangers in this regard, as they currently sit tied for 23rd in points and rank 25th in points percentage (.474) this season. That’s quite the downturn from where this club sat a year ago.

So what has caused Florida to transition from a Presidents’ Trophy winner to a potential draft lottery team in such a short time? And is it possible to overcome these woes before it’s too late?

With their odds of making the playoffs at 16.7 percent according to current statistics, the Panthers have a mathematical possibility. MoneyPuck. To pull off that feat, though, they’ll require improved performances from goaltenders Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight.

Bobrovsky — in the fourth season of a 7-year, $70-million contract — has posted career worsts in goals-against average (3.32) and save percentage (.894) across 23 games in 2022-23. Knight has also recorded the worst goals against average (3.00) as well as the lowest save percentage (.907) in his short career.

The Panthers have surrendered 10.42 goals per match, which is clearly not a recipe to success. It’s also a big step back from last season, when the Panthers had allowed only 2.95 goals per game.

In 2021-22, the Panthers were led by their goaltending team. Bobrovsky was third in save percentage (0.009) and fourth overall in goals saved over expected (23.4). Knight was also much more successful in his limited opportunities. Knight posted a record of 4.0 goals saved over expected and a save percentage of 0.003 above expected.

That hasn’t occurred this season, however, with both netminders recording minus-2.0 goals saved above expected or worse and a minus-0.002 save percentage above expected. Altogether, they’ve been worth a combined minus-0.71 Wins Above Replacement, down significantly from last season’s 4.56 mark.

What’s worse is that Florida is allowing significantly fewer high-danger chances this season, ranking 15th in HD shots against at 5-on-5 after finishing 31st a season ago. As a result, they’ve gone from placing 20th in expected goals against at 5-on-5 to 10th in 2022-23, but they aren’t reaping the rewards of that progress.

The Panthers have also been plagued by injuries this season, with Anthony Duclair — who hasn’t played since 2021-22 due to offseason Achilles tendon surgery — and Patric Hörnqvist (concussion) currently residing on long-term injured reserve. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Aaron Ekblad, captain of the team, was out for 11 games with a lower-body injury. However, his team still went 6-4-1 without him. But the 26-year-old hasn’t been the same since returning, tallying four goals and 14 points on the season, putting the talented defenceman on pace for his lowest points per game total (0.52) since 2018-19.

Aleksander Barkov, the club’s No. Aleksander Barkov is the club’s No.1 centre and best player. He has been out of action due to illness and a leg injury that have limited him to just 28 games. Radko Gudas, Anton Lundell, and Radko Lundell were also affected by head and upper-body injuries.

With so many bodies constantly in and out of Florida’s lineup, compounded by the offseason blockbuster that sent Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary in exchange for Matthew Tkachuk, creating chemistry has proven extremely difficult.

Inconsistent lineup combinations have also likely played a major factor on special teams — another area the Cats have struggled immensely in compared to last season.

In 2021-22, the Panthers were tied with the Nashville Predators for the fourth best power play league-wide (24.4%), led by Huberdeau’s team-leading 38 points on the man advantage. Florida was also middle-of the pack (16th) and had a 79.5 per cent penalty kill rate.

Florida’s skaters have failed to replicate those encouraging figures this season, though, placing 22nd in penalty kill percentage (74.8) and 24th in power play percentage (19.3). They’ve also allowed four short-handed markers, on pace to surrender eight or more for a second straight year.

Interestingly, creating offence at even strength hasn’t been an issue for this group in 2022-23, as they rank top five in corsi (54.2) and sixth in expected goals percentage (54.4). As of this writing, the team is tied for 10th place in league overall goals with 124.

Although a little more puck luck would be a good thing, it is unlikely that an increase in scoring will cover their special teams and goaltending problems or compensate for their average defensive team. That will all have to turn around — quickly — for the Panthers to claw back into playoff contention in the second half.

And with zero first-round picks through 2025 at their disposal, paired with a subpar farm system, there almost certainly won’t be any season-altering trade acquisitions walking through the door this time, leaving Panthers GM Bill Zito between a rock and a hard place.

Paul Maurice, head coach of the Winnipeg Jets is also in a tough spot. This is his first season as a franchise coach. He’s only been able to oversee one of the largest single-year drops in NHL history.

Luckily for Maurice and the Panthers, time is still their friend — but it will fade, and fast.

More on Sports