Record India Wheat Crop will Open the Way to Lowering Export Curbs

(Bloomberg) — India is expected to harvest a record crop of wheat this season. The country’s favorable weather and heat resistant seeds will likely boost yields. This could open the door to lifting export restrictions.

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According to Gyanendra Singh (head of the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research), output could increase by almost 5% from the previous year to 112,000,000 tons in the year to Juni. Wheat, planted in October, accounts for about 65% of India’s winter-sown food grains. In 2020-21, the previous record was 109.6 millions.

The government may be able to lift export restrictions, and cool down domestic prices that have soared following last year’s weak harvest. India stopped wheat exports from May. This shock move fueled fears of food insecurity and inflation during the conflict in Ukraine. The decision was taken after a record-breaking heat wave parched the crop and slashed India’s output last year.

According to Singh, the state-run institute, the production outlook for this season is better because of an increase in the area that has been planted. Many farmers have also sown new varieties that can withstand higher temperatures. According to the farm ministry, India has seen wheat sown across 82 million acres, an increase in yield of 0.7% over a year ago.

Anil Kalyan, a farmer who planted grain on 40 acres of land in northern Haryana, stated that temperatures have been good. “If the weather stays favorable in February and March, yields at my wheat fields may jump to 2.2 tons to 2.3 tons per acre from about 1.9 tons last year,” he said.

Local prices may be lowered by higher production. According to data from the ministry of food, the average retail price for wheat is 14% more than it was a year ago, and flour prices have increased almost 18%. Global wheat prices, however, are down by 3% despite disruptions caused by the war.

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