Brief, Pianowski debate their high 1B
DJ Brief and Scott Pianowski debate their high 5 fantasy first basemen in 2023 and one has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the high, whereas the opposite has Freddie Freeman.
Video Transcript
DJ SHORT: I’ve Jose Abreu at quantity six. And once more, we have talked rather a lot about Abreu, what he might probably do in that Astros lineup. I feel we’ll see a bounceback energy clever and counting stats. He’ll be there. Ought to hit for common too. I feel he is fairly protected for, such as you mentioned earlier, exterior the highest 100ADP, he is one of many safer picks you may get that late within the draft.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI: For positive, which is why I’ve him at quantity 5. If we’d discuss in regards to the high guys, Paul Goldschmidt coming off an MVP season, growing old gracefully in his 30s. He is been quantity 4 first baseman. Pete Alonso perhaps the most effective pure energy hitter within the sport, and that Mets lineup is tremendous deep.
There’s rather a lot of– I am saying that rather a lot. There’s numerous lineups I need to put money into. I do know you are a Mets fan. I obtained to get some Mets away from you this 12 months once we’re drafting in opposition to one another. Pete Alonso, my quantity three man.
After which I feel it is a terrific debate, and I do know we now have totally different solutions on this, I’ve Vladimir Guerrero at two, Freddie Freeman at one. I do know lots of people may have that the opposite manner round. They’re going to each go along with early picks. They’re each going to be on the quick record of MVP favorites.
Possibly Guerrero will get slightly little bit of buzz as a result of he hasn’t gained it but. So if Guerrero was within the hunt, perhaps individuals would need to give him an MVP, the place Freeman’s already gained it. However man, give me all of the Freddie Freeman and Vladimir Guerrero you need since you’re not going to need to be sitting that out this 12 months.
DJ SHORT: Yeah, I feel it is an fascinating debate as a result of if you discuss ceiling, Vlad Junior has the ceiling, however Freddie Freeman has the safer flooring. So both manner I might see each views with that. With me, I’ve Vlad Guerrero Junior primary at first base simply due to that potential ceiling there.
However going again to the quantity 5 for me, I’ve Matt Olson. And I feel a little bit of a disappointment in his first season with the Braves changing Freddie Freeman there, however I imply, his high quality of contact is elite. Even final 12 months, Matt’s exit velocity 98 percentile, common exit velocity 97 percentile, laborious hit share 96, higher share, 93.
He’ll hit for energy, we all know that. The Braves lineup is superb, very deep. There’s been numerous groups we have mentioned that about, however the bizarre factor about Matt Olson is that this bouncing strikeout charge that he is had. It has been far and wide.
In 2020, the pandemic shortened season, he had a strikeout charge of 31.4%. 2021, went right down to 16.8%. Final 12 months, 24.3%. So it is sort of far and wide, and the batting common, wherever it settles, I feel depends upon the place that strikeout charge falls. However I feel one other 12 months within the Nationwide League, familiarizing himself with these pitchers within the Nationwide League East, I feel might do him some favors there. I am nonetheless actually massive on Matt Olson, though he is my quantity 5.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Simply at age 29 season too. So it is a lot of baseball left in Matt Olson too.
DJ SHORT: So extra of a veteran right here, Paul Goldschmidt at quantity 4 coming off an MVP season. It appears like persons are sleeping on that, truly. He is coming off that MVP, however he is growing old gracefully. High quality contact metrics are nonetheless implausible, hit 35 homers final 12 months, even stole seven bases. We considered him as being accomplished from a pace perspective, however he nonetheless fills up the field rating, which you need to see there.
And I like that Cardinals lineup. I feel there’s each motive to suppose he will be, perhaps not MVP caliber once more, however nonetheless excellent. However I am going with the youth at quantity three, Pete Alonso. I do not suppose we have seen his ceiling but from a fantasy perspective. I do know he had that rookie residence run file, however made it again to 40 residence runs final season, drove in 131 runs.
It is laborious to do a lot better than that, however I can see with the facility that Pete Alonso has, he has a 50-homer season in him, he has one other one. In some unspecified time in the future it is coming down the pike. And what I like about Pete Alonso is that he isn’t only a energy hitter.
You have a look at the best way he is improved with the strikeout charge, hit .271 final 12 months. It is not loopy that he might hit .285, .290 one these years, hit 50 homers. And once more, it is laborious to financial institution on 130 RBIs, however he might do this once more with a lineup that may be very, excellent. So I’ve Pete Alonso at quantity three.
Freddie Freeman at quantity two. The one query for me is how a lot energy Freeman can hit for. That is the one motive I put him behind Vlad, who I feel he might be a 40-homer hitter yearly. And a lineup I actually beloved there with the Blue Jays, like we talked about a bit earlier. Vlad’s high quality contact is elite as properly. I feel that the sky is the restrict for Vlad, whereas Freeman is dependable because it will get at first base, however I feel there is a wholesome debate there, such as you mentioned.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Yeah, it is fascinating. So that you have a look at NFBC ADP and the highest 30– the fellows within the high 30 at this place are Goldschmidt at 27, Alonso at 20, Freeman at 13, and Vlad’s at 11. I feel you make the argument that Olson’s– not Olson, Alonso is the most effective worth of that group as a result of he might simply win this tier.
He is had a 53-home run season earlier than. As you mentioned, he hits for common. Folks lose that. It is easy to get caught up within the energy with him. He is within the House Run Derby yearly. He hits these tape measure residence runs, however he isn’t a– he isn’t like some .220 swing and miss man.
I imply, he is a extremely sensible hitter. He has energy to all fields. That the Mets have put an incredible lineup, clearly, they’ve spent extra money than anyone this 12 months and so they put a terrific workforce on the sphere. If any person mentioned to me they wished to draft Pete Alonso over Freeman or Guerrero, I would not say you are fallacious. I did not rank him that manner.
However if you’d like to– once more, should you’re like in a wage cap league the place you have got slightly bit extra management over the form of your roster and also you get Alonso a few bucks cheaper than these different two guys, I am fantastic with that. I feel he is the most effective worth of the 4.
So far as Freeman and Guerrero, and perhaps it is a weak point of me as a fantasy participant, with the early picks, generally I am slightly bit extra floor-driven. And I simply suppose when have I ever regretted a Freddie Freeman decide? Vladimir Guerrero is fantastic. The park is terrific.
The fences are coming in. He is on the escalator. We’ve not seen his greatest season but. Vladimir Guerrero might win a house run title, he might win a batting title, he might be an MVP, it is in a park that appears like it should be Disneyland. These are all nice issues.
And as you say, Freeman is extra of a well-rounded participant. He is not going to hit 45 residence runs. I get it, however I do not know. I am slightly bit extra floor-driven generally with this stuff. In order that’s why I’ve Freeman first, however should you and I had been co-managing a workforce, and our decide was on the clock, and also you wished to pound the desk for Guerrero, I feel I might be persuaded by that.
DJ SHORT: Yeah, I feel they’re each protected I feel early. They usually’re prone to be off the board, in all probability throughout the first 15 picks of any combined league draft this spring. So I feel it is fascinating you convey up tiers as a result of I feel Vlad and Freeman are within the first tier. Alonso, Goldschmidt, Olson are in that second tier.
Third tier for me, Abreu, Pascal, Antino, Lowe. And then you definately go a bit decrease, no pun supposed, with Crone, Hoskins, Mountcastle, Walker, these sort of guys. To me at that time perhaps you are considering extra like nook infielder, that is the place you begin to suppose if you get that late within the draft. However I feel you possibly can tier these guys out and make your plan based mostly off that.