Star receivers were popped, rookies closed fast 2022
When it comes to wide receiver shopping in this fantasy football racket, it’s pretty simple. You get what your pay for. While you might be able to find a helpful player in the final rounds, it is almost impossible to become a league winner. The waiver wire is good for supplementary help, but you’re unlikely to break the game with free loot.
In the fourth and final edition of our Exit Interview series, let’s dig into the wideouts and see where the profits were. We’ll use the general grading system of green, yellow, and red — a green pick is someone you were thrilled about, a yellow pick brought middling returns, and a red player kicked you in the shins. I’m also going to batch the players in ADP Tiers, by 10s, so you can see how the big-ticket items controlled this position in 2022.
Skip to the takeaways if you prefer. They’re located at the bottom. We’re here to help. TL;DR crowd.
(Editorial note: Because it’s easiest to work with this data through full-point PPR, that’s what I used for final WR finishes. I also included all 18 weeks. Yahoo’s default scoring setting is half-point PPR, so some of your mileage will vary. Although the end-of year ranks may be slightly different than usual, it is not a major difference.
[Complete Exit Interview series: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs]
Top-10 Wideouts from ADP (six greens, one yellow and three reds)
We’d like to see Justin Jefferson He could be a little more dynamic when it comes to touchdowns, but he got drafted as the WR1 after being selected. He was a natural on the field, with a lot of targets, catches, and yards. If you’re looking for negatives on this guy, who just finished his age-23 season, you’re trying too hard.
When big-name wideouts change teams, it’s not a big deal — at least it wasn’t in 2022. Tyreek Hill (WR2, the most consistent receiver in league) Davante Adams (WR3, led league for touchdown grabs) A.J. Brown (WR6 finally sweet volume) gave me what I wanted.
We drafted Stefon Diggs He wanted to keep his existing level. He did. We drafted CeeDee Lamb He was expecting a big step forward. He did it.
Ja’Marr Chase The lone yellow. His WR11 rating in aggregate was lowered by injuries and one canceled match. He was WR4 in per game scoring. I know some who will target Chase as the first wideout off the board next season, and it’s reasonable.
Cooper Kupp He was excellent before the injury and finished as WR23 despite missing two weeks. He is now a red due to opportunity cost. Deebo Samuel was also an injury casualty — and the Niners also have a crowded tree, albeit on a loaded offense — and Michael Pittman Colts offense crash-landing did it in.
The bottom line is that this was a profitable pocket to draft in. Most robust WR teams did well, so long as you didn’t take Kupp in the first round.
Wideouts 11-20 (one, four, yellow, and five red)
This area could be called a quasi dead zone. This pool felt the sting of surprising NFL quarterback problems league-wise.
I gave Mike Evans Red tag for going 11 consecutive games without a touchdown. Then he posted the best WR performance of the season. after his managers were likely eliminated. His end-of-year ranking (WR17) is misleading, and it didn’t meet his ADP anyway (WR11).
The Gabriel Davis four-touchdown explosion in last year’s playoffs turned into a false window. He wasn’t terrible, but a WR36 finish was disappointing.
DJ Moore Had to deal with poor QB play. Courtland Sutton These injuries were treated Russell Wilson. All went wrong Allen RobinsonIt was sad to see.
I gave MIke Williams Keenan Allen yellow tags but they could easily be red — both were injured, and the Chargers The offense was unable to move the ball downfield. Their production was average, but not exceptional when they were healthy. Diontae Johnson didn’t meet his ADP (or, famously, score a touchdown), but volume kept him somewhat relevant at WR28. Tee Higgins didn’t meet his ADP either, but stayed in the WR2 bucket.
This pocket’s only player who broke his summer tag was Jaylen Waddle (drafted as WR19 and finished at WR8) Tua Tagovailoa Lead the league in passer ratings, performing well when not afflicted by concussions. Head coach Mike McDaniel looks like a winning hire.
Wideouts 21-30 (2 green, 4 yellow, 4 red)
If you are a sleuth preseason Geno Smith Jared Goff It would be fine. You likely came up ADP smashes from. Amon-Ra St. Brown DK Metcalf. These are your green lights.
Some might argue. Chris Godwin (drafted as WR30, finished WR19) deserves a green tag, but I didn’t see enough week-to-week upside. His rank seems more like a case if survivor bias. He also received benefits from Tom Brady’s burning desire to throw the ball as soon as possible — anything to avoid a hit.
Jerry Jeudy He managed to beat his ADP by a little (WR25 summer and WR22 finish), which was a miracle in the Denver chaos. Only once, I want to see Terry McLaurin Play with a plus quarterback JuJu Smith-Schuster The experience was good, but not exceptional. Patrick Mahomes Getting an MVP season.
The reds are mostly about injury — Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman Darnell Mooney. Brandin Cooks was finally stopped by a weak supporting cast.
Wideouts 31-40 (four red, three yellow and three green)
This pocket’s four green winners beat their summer ADPs by more than 20 receiver slots. Christian Kirk A good coach, an ascending quarterback and a narrow goal tree helped them. Amari Cooper Another wideout for the change-team did very well. Brandon Aiyuk was a win for the “last year’s flop” angle (buy at a discount), DeVonta Smith spread his wings in Year 2, part of one of fantasy’s cleanest and most explosive offenses.
Adam Thielen and Allen Lazard They were more useful as WR3/flex players than they were as WR2/flex guys, but had little upside. DeAndre Hopkins His return was not great, but he was able to improve his game. He also had low touchdown equity (which is partly his fault).
Michael Thomas It is possible to become a viable NFL player. Hunter Renfrow turned pumpkin after his 2021 breakout, though injuries didn’t help. Elijah Moore It clashed avec the New York Jets Coach staff was given priority by rookies Garrett Wilson.
Winners other than the Top 40
When it comes to receivers, you’re unlikely to make a major profit with a late pick or a waiver-wire smash. Tyler Lockett (WR45 ADP; WR13 finish), was the deepest pick to crash the Top 20.
Many rookies made an impression, particularly if they were patient and gained some experience. Garrett Wilson (WR21). Chris Olave (WR25) were great all year. Drake London (WR31), George Pickens (WR40), Christian Watson (WR41) Jahan Dotson (WR51). He stressed the importance to try and acquire rookie receivers in mid-year, as the light could continue at any time.
Zay Jones (WR26) Jakobi Meyers (WR29) were good, if anything, seismic fit for their teams. Curtis Samuel (WR33), Josh Palmer (WR37), Tyler Boyd (WR39) Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR39), provided low-ceiling depth.
Take-Aways, Take Me Away
• There will always be some fantasy managers who want to go cheap at quarterback or tight end, and Zero RB is still a thing, too. But if you try to make Zero WR work, you’re setting yourself up to fail. It’s unrealistic to expect that you’ll run hot enough in the middle rounds to catch up, and the waiver wire seldom has a home run for you — when you merely find a single or a double off the wire, you want to start hugging strangers.
• Once upon a time, we fretted when receivers changed teams. To be fair, sometimes that was due to a player moving up in depth importance. Most of the wideouts that switched teams this season worked well. Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams A.J. Brown Three of the most important right answers for the summer were highlighted, with others adding to them.Christian Kirk, Amari Cooper). Only Allen Robinson Marquise Brown This subset was a failure.
• Almost everyone at this position, even the Top-10 guys, posted a handful of off weeks. Wideouts are notorious for their high levels of variability. I’m not going to look for reasons to ding a Jefferson or an Adams because they did little in some games. This is about 95% of the situation, and even those guys who beat it in 2022 (Hill was remarkable consistent, for instance) don’t guarantee that they will do the same next year.
• Some rookies hit the ground running, specifically Garrett Wilson Chris Olave. Ohio State is a great place to recruit wideouts. But try to be patient if your preferred rookie wideout doesn’t do much early; maybe it’s coming in the second half. Christian Watson, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens Drake London There were some great games posted down the stretch. It is intuitively obvious that a young player may need some adjustment time. However, Circle-of-Trust could be ready after Halloween or Thanksgiving.