The Vikings’ 13-4 record was an historic anomaly. Will their luck run dry in the playoffs
The Minnesota Vikings Team doesn’t seem to connect to the team on the stats page. But, as you know by now, it’s not a computer glitch. It was kept afloat by Justin Jefferson Heroics, 61 yard field goals, massive Josh Allen errors, and a record-setting comeback to the defense against the ColtsThe Vikings reach the playoffs with a record 13-4, despite multiple metrics indicating they are a.500 or less football team.
Athletes and fans understandably bristle when their team’s success is attributed to luck, but it’s time for these Vikings to lean into their roles as all-time beneficiaries of randomness. This is not just a better-than-you’d-expect season. This is the Powerball Jackpot winner for football teams.
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Pick pretty much any stat beyond actual wins and losses, and the Vikings’ success starts to look perplexing. Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric for team strength rates the Vikings as the 27th-best team in the league, behind such luminaries as the Raiders and Broncos. .
Perhaps most glaringly, the Vikings — who, again, won 13 games and lost only four — managed to give up three More They scored more points this season than they did, and their margin was even wider before Justin Fields’s absence from the Bears team in Week 18. Logistically, this is how it works. Minnesota was 11-0 in one score games. This is a situation that almost always results in a split middle. Minnesota also suffered three blowout defeats.
With so many contests per season in sports, it is easier to get a better idea of the true performance by looking at more detailed indicators. Pythagorean expected wins, which estimates a team’s record based on point differential, gave the Vikings 8.4 wins. By that measure, they are the luckiest, most random, most unreasonably successful — whatever you want to call it — team to log a .700 or better winning percentage in the Super Bowl era. Per Pro-Football-Reference’s calculations, the Vikings’ actual winning percentage (.765) surpassed their expected one (.494) by more than any other team to reach that level, which amounts to a 12-win season in the current 17-game world. The 2019 contenders were closest. Green Bay Packers (13-3 with 9.7 anticipated wins) and 2016 Oakland Raiders (12-4; 8.7 expected victories).
Statistically, this team is more like borderline contenders that make it into the playoffs by the skins of their teeth. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Or Miami Dolphins. In the last three seasons, eleven teams have had better point differentials that the Vikings. You missed the playoffs completely … a group that includes the 2021 Vikings.
There’s no point in trying to explain the Vikings’ season thus far, but their journey isn’t over. They are set up with the NFC’s No. They are the No. 3 seed, regardless of how deserving they may be. So is the Vikings’ incredible luck destined to run out? Could it be able to carry them all the time? ?
Is pixie dust carried over to the playoffs?
The Vikings are an exception among 12 or more winning teams, but it is not common for middling teams to make the playoffs. Since 1966, 53 teams have reached the playoffs with a negative difference in points. That includes four this season — the Vikings, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Minnesota’s first-round opponent, the New York Giants.
The Giants seem to have been dropped out of the sky to provide a cosmic reminder of what’s possible, if unlikely. Only one of the 53 teams that had underwater regular season stats made it to conference championship. But Eli Manning’s second miracle squad went on to win the whole thing. The late-running club was transformed , edging out … the David Tyree’s Helmet vs. Goliath story of the 2007 Giants (point differential, +22).
To the degree we can locate any historical ancestors, things don’t look promising. The 2012 Colts had an 11-5 season, despite only 7.2 wins. They were then knocked out by the 10-6 Ravens in round two. The 2016 Raiders — 12-4 despite an 8.7-win expected record — took a 27-14 beating from Bill O’Brien’s 9-7 Houston Texans In the playoffs.
Except for the 2011 Giants, 2008 Arizona Cardinals are not the best team (by point differential), to reach the Super Bowl. This might be a model for others. Their defense was 28th in the NFL for points per game, just like the Vikings. And like the Vikings, they leaned on a transcendent wide receiver (Larry Fitzgerald), though their offense graded out more highly than Minnesota’s.
The real case for hope might reside in Minnesota’s potential playoff opponents. One reason it’s so hard to find comparisons for this Vikings team is because most teams with this sort of regular-season performance squeak into the playoffs and wind up playing a road game against a better team in the first round.
In five games against eventual playoff teams this year, Minnesota allowed 26.8 points per game and scored only 18.8 points per game — even though they managed a 3-2 record, because of course they did. But the Vikings’ absurd record earned them the privilege of playing a Giants team fortunate to get to 9-7-1, sporting a -6 point differential.
If they make it to the conference title game, the Vikings will be the second-worst, in terms of point differential. They could make it to the title game with some breaks and not have to face a team with better underlying performances.
It’s unlikely! It would require the Seahawks To upset the 49ersThe Buccaneers would beat the Cowboys but it would bring Minnesota to the Super Bowl doorstep without having them face reality. And given their season so far, you might not want to be too confident it won’t happen.