The US nuclear agency fails to provide cost estimates and scheduling information

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — The U.S. agency in charge of jumpstarting the production of key components for the nation’s nuclear arsenal is falling short when it comes to having a comprehensive schedule for the multibillion-dollar project.

According to the Government Accountability Office, report released Thursday The National Nuclear Security Administration’s plans to reestablish plutonium pit production are not in line with best practices. This could lead to delays and overruns.

Federal government has not produced plutonium cores in a regular fashion for more than 30 years. Congress has set a deadline to produce at least 80 cores per year by 2030.

The GAO describes the modernization effort as the agency’s largest investment in weapons production infrastructure to date, noting that plutonium is a dangerous material and making the weapon cores is difficult and time consuming.

“NNSA lacks both a comprehensive cost estimate and a schedule outlining all activities it needs to achieve this capability,” the reports states.

Since 2018, when the federal government announced plans to restart production, similar concerns have been voiced by nuclear watchdog organizations. This was after Los Alamos National Laboratory in northern New Mexico and Savannah River Site in South Carolina split the work.

It is a matter of billions of dollar in funding to improve the infrastructure and create thousands of new jobs.

Democratic members of New Mexico’s congressional delegation have fought to ensure Los Alamos — a once secret city that helped develop the atomic bomb as part of the Manhattan Project — would be among the benefactors of the lucrative mission.

The GAO used documents from the nuclear agency to justify its fiscal year 2023 budget. It identified potential costs of up to $18 billion to $24 miliarde to increase production capacity.

However, the GAO and other independent analysts as well as officials from the U.S. Defense Department have all testified that NNSA would miss its 2030 deadline regardless of how much funding was channeled towards the project.

The NNSA announced Thursday in a statement that it had accepted the recommendations of the GAO and that some work was underway to implement best practice.

“Both the lifecycle cost estimate data and (integrated master schedule) will be updated as needed to reflect the most up-to-date information as the projects and program work progress,” the agency said.

More specifically, the agency said in a letter to the GAO that it planned to complete the cost estimate for the overall project by September 2025 and that the schedule would “continue to mature over time.”

Greg Mello, director at Los Alamos Study Group said that NNSA doesn’t have a detailed schedule or cost estimate and therefore has little chance of success.

“How can NNSA produce the required number of pits on schedule or on budget, when NNSA has no schedule or budget?” he asked. “These are elementary, normal components in any program or project. After more than two decades of preparation, NNSA doesn’t have them.”

Jay Coghlan (executive director of Nuclear Watch New Mexico) pointed out that the cost of the project has doubled in four years. He stated that the total cost of production at the two sites could reach $60 billion over the next 30 years. Radioactive waste disposal, as well as other health and environmental concerns, will add to this figure.

Until Congress and the New Mexican delegation demand credible cost estimates and schedules, Coghlan said lawmakers “should stop rewarding the guilty with yet more money.”

“That is simple good governance that could help slow our sleepwalk into the new and unpredictable nuclear arms race,” he said.

Mello agreed. He said the mission must be openly debated in Congress and not only discussed behind closed doors, or by members of defense committees.

The GAO’s report outlined the process of making plutonium pits and a history about how and where it was done during Cold War. Before 1989, the long-defunct Rocky Flats Plant in Denver was capable to produce more than 1,000 war reserve pots per year. This was before environmental and regulatory concerns.

Rocky Flats was plagued by a long history involving fires, leaks and other violations. A $7 billion cleanup effort was undertaken in 2005.

A council consisting of defense and energy officials advised Congress during the Obama administration that the nation should produce between 50 to 80 pits each year. In a 2015 defense measure, Congress included a legal mandate to produce. The president later approved the measure and signed it.

Later, the mandate was amended to include 80 pits by 2030. The GAO states that some construction projects and upgrades required for Los Alamos work won’t be completed for several years.