Comparing Pac-12’s preseason win-loss projections with the final records in 2022
I’d be the last one to say I understand all of these analytics that have come into the sports world in the last five seasons. When I was in highschool, I couldn’t even pass trigonometry.
ESPN claims its so when it says its Football Power Index, “measures a team’s true strength on a net point scale; expected point margin vs. opponent on a neutral field,” they might as well be speaking Romulan. All we need to know is who’s favored and why. The end result is also important.
Before the season started, ESPN’s FPI basically laid out who was going to be good and who was going to stink it up. Although they mostly did the right thing, there were a few instances when the team did better than expected.
This is how each Pac-12 team was expected to finish the season. It also shows how they did at the end.
Colorado Buffaloes
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Promised record: 3.2-8.8 | 2022 record: 1-11
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 6.3% | No Bowl Game
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Chance to Win Conference 0.0% | 2022 finish: 12th Place
Analysis: Everyone knew Colorado would be a bad team, but we didn’t think they would be THAT bad. Deion Sanders was hired by the Buffaloes to revive an once powerful program.
Stanford Cardinal
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Projected Record 4.9-7.1 | 2022 record: 3-9
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 34.2% | No Bowl Game
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Chance to Win Conference 0.9% | 2022 finish: 11th place
Analysis: Stanford was tough to watch at times, especially since it wasn’t too long ago that the Cardinal was a very good program. COVID was a major problem in Palo Alto, and eventually lead to David Shaw’s resignation.
Arizona State Sun Devils
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Projected Record 7.7-4.5 | 2022 record: 3-9
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| No Bowl Game
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2022 End| 2022 finish: 10th place
Analysis: This team was in chaos before the season started. The bowl projection of nearly 92% is quite remarkable. Herm Edwards was dismissed midseason due to off-the-field scandals, poor start and other issues. Kenny Dillingham is now going to try and clean up the mess.
Arizona Wildcats
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Projected Record 3.5-8.5 | 2022 record: 5-7
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 9.3%| No Bowl Game
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Chance to win Conference 0.1%| 2022 finish: 9Place th
Analysis: Arizona performed better than expected, despite a losing record. It was a minor miracle that the Wildcats missed the postseason. Jedd Fisch, the coach of Pac-12, might have won votes for Pac-12 Coaches of Year if they’d made it to a bowl.
California Golden Bears
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Proposed Record 5.5-6.5 | 2022 record: 4-8
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 49.7% | No Bowl Game
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Chance to Win Conference 1.0% | 2022 finish: 8th Place
Analysis: COVID has also done a number on the California program, but coach Justin Wilcox won’t be able to use that as an excuse for much longer. The Golden Bears, a team in the Pac-12 that isn’t very interesting to many, are nothing but a ho-hum team.
Washington State Cougars
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Projected Record 4.7-7.3 | 2022 record: 7-6
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 29.8% | Lost Jimmy Kimmel Bowl
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Chance to Win Conference 0.3% | 2022 finish: 7Place th
Analysis: Although Washington State did finish the season well, it was not what they expected. However, given the way the season started, the Cougars could have easily had a few more wins. They had Utah and Oregon on their side. WSU would have seen a dramatic shift in the direction of the conference if it had won these games.
UCLA Bruins
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Projected Record 8.7-3.3 | 2022 record: 9-4
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 98.7% | Lost Sun Bowl
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Chance to win Conference 10.8% | 2022 finish: 6Place th
Analysis: UCLA had a season that was almost as expected. But there were some games it allowed to get away. For a long time, the 37-35 defeat to Pittsburgh in Sun Bowl will be etched in memory. Chip Kelly might have had the last laugh after signing Dante Moore, the best quarterback in the Class 2023.
Oregon State Beavers
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Proposed Record 6.0-6.0 | 2022 record: 10-3
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 62.8% | Vegas Bowl won
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Chance to win Conference 2.2% | 2022 finish: 5Place th
Analysis: With their first 10-win season since 2006, the Beavers surprised many people. Jonathan Smith has Oregon State on the right track and just brought in Clemson’s quarterback transfer DJ Uiagalelei. The Beavers are a dangerous team and have a legitimate chance of winning the conference title in 2023.
Oregon Ducks
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Proposed Record 8.6-4.1 | 2022 record: 10-3
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 96.9% | Holiday Bowl Winner
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Chance to Win Conference 33.3%| 2022 finish: Fourth place
Analysis: Oregon was well on its way to appearing in the conference title, but Bo Nix’s ankle injury and a couple of busted coverages cost the Ducks a loss to Washington. Then came the chaos in Corvallis. But Dan Lanning’s crew rebounded nicely with a win over North Carolina in the Holiday Bowl. The Ducks, with their outstanding recruiting class, some high-profile transfers and Nix’s return, should be favorites to win the conference title in 2023.
Washington Huskies
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Projected Record 7.3-4.8 | 2022 record: 11-2
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 88.8% | Won Alamo Bowl
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Chance to win Conference 5.4%| 2022 finish: 3rd Place
Analysis: Washington is a great example of how a good coach can make a difference. Although we all knew Kalen de Boer was a great coach, few people expected that Michael Penix Jr. would be a great quarterback. And he’s coming back and should be a Heisman contender next season.
USC Trojans
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Projected Record 7.9-4.3 | 2022 record: 11-3
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 94.3% | Lost Cotton Bowl
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Chance to Win Conference 8.9%| 2022 finish: 2nd Place
Analysis: Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams almost led the Trojans to the College Football Playoff. But Williams suffered a hamstring injury during the Pac-12 title game, which forced him out of the contest and USC out the CFP. Their defensive woes were not over in the bowl game. Even though their poor tackling cost them their bowl game, Riley will keep Alex Grinch as their defensive coordinator. Williams will be back in 2023 and the Trojans will follow him, making the Pac-12 one of the most deep conferences in the country.
Utah Utes
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Projected Record 9.3-3.2 | 2022 record: 10-4
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Chance at Bowl Eligibility 99.3% | Lost Rose Bowl
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Chance to win Conference 29.4%| 2022 finish: 1.
Analysis: Just when you think Utah is due for a “down year,” the Utes announce quarterback Cam Rising will be back for 2023 and will be playing for a three-peat. Rising was injured in the Rose Bowl. It most likely cost the Utes victory in Pasadena over Penn State.