The Chargers are the right team on Saturday night
This year’s playoff field is quite different. Every year, I feel pumped up. But the addition of young talent at quarterback elevates my excitement to a new level. Without the NFL playoffs, it was difficult to imagine. Aaron RodgersDrew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger Tom Brady For a long time. We have not yet gotten rid of Brady but at 8-9 he is definitely not in the top of the playoff picture. The first wave was a success. Patrick Mahomes Josh Allen was a few years earlier. Last season Joe Burrow Into the chat Now, Justin Herbert Trevor Lawrence and Trevor Lawrence are now here.
These historical trends don’t favor quarterbacks making their playoff debuts. I can still recall successfully defeating Josh Allen’s 2020 postseason debut against the TexansThe result was a 22-19 loss to Buffalo. It is a reminder that every dynamic quarterback starts somewhere. This makes it even more interesting that Herbert and Lawrence will be facing off in their first chapter. The rivalry could be the next Dan Marino/Jim Kelly, Brady/Peyton Manning, or Allen-Mahomes. While the future is exciting, Saturday night is all that matters. Let’s handicap this one to see which quarterback can get us there.
What a difference one year makes. The Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley was regarded as one of the best young head coaches in football at the time. Doug Pederson could barely even get a interview. Now, Pederson wants to be the Coach of the Year while Staley needs a late run in order to stay on the right sidelines. The NFL will always be about “What have I done for you lately?” The betting market, however, is a completely different animal and helps us to stay grounded from the league’s emotional swings. Recession bias can be easily spotted by the oddsmakers who do a wonderful job of getting us back on track. The conversation is entirely different about whether we ignore the signals.
It is easy to get lost in Jacksonville’s storybook ending of the regular season. It’s all we love about sports. The coach that nobody wanted is hired by the franchise that nobody wanted to coach. This turns a 3-7 record into a winning streak of five games to win the AFC South. Twitter is full of bettors displaying their future tickets, and everyone is happy. This was an impressive run. Saturday night will be the last lap. We all love Pederson. However, there were only six games with tight point spreads. I was forced to place a bet on the Chargers at the key number three.
Although I love the game’s focus on the quarterbacks, I feel that it will be decided by which defense does a better defensive job. This is where the Chargers have the most advantage. Brandon Staley’s defense has returned to health with Joey Bosa The second half of the season has seen L.A. return to the lineup and look impressive. L.A. is ranked sixth in EPA per droppedback allowed for non-garbage time situations and has moved as high as second the last five weeks. Bosa’s recent return has seen the Chargers do a better job pressing the quarterback. Over the last three weeks, the Chargers have had the second most sacks. For a young quarterback, playoffs move faster. While Staley’s scheme allows for yards on the ground and I believe Lawrence will be frustrated by the Chargers’ coverages, Lawrence will have the most important game of his career.
Jacksonville’s secondary will give Herbert an easier time. The Jags defense ranks 30th on pass DVOA, 28th on passing yards allowed, 22nd in yards for each passing attempt and 29th overall. It is unclear whether or not the Jags will be able to win. Mike Williams The Chargers’ offensive firepower is unmatched, and their 100% success rate means that they can go anywhere on the field. Austin Eckler will be a key part of the game plan. Jacksonville is the NFL’s worst tackling unit and allows the most receiving yards to running backs per game. Jacksonville’s offensive success will force them to abandon the ground game and play right into Staley’s hands. This is not about which quarterback or coach did a better job last season. The best team around him will decide who wins. My money is on Justin Herbert.
Statistics provided by Football Outsiders (rbsdm), PFF. teamrankings.com.